The United States and Iran have started a 60-day diplomatic plan in Switzerland to end current conflicts and ensure that ships can safely pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

美國與伊朗在瑞士啟動了一項為期 60 天的外交計劃，以結束目前的衝突，並確保船隻能安全通過霍爾木茲海峽。

The current political situation is fragile, although Qatar and Pakistan have helped both sides reach an agreement. A key result of the Lake Lucerne Summit is the creation of a communication channel to prevent accidents at sea and a coordination center involving the Lebanese government. To encourage cooperation, the U.S. Treasury issued a 60-day permit allowing the export of Iranian oil and chemicals. However, the situation remains unstable; President Trump has threatened further military action, and Tehran briefly closed the Strait of Hormuz again following Israeli operations in Lebanon.

目前的政治局勢十分脆弱，儘管卡達與巴基斯坦協助雙方達成了協議。盧塞恩湖峰會的一個關鍵成果是建立了防止海上意外的溝通管道，以及一個涉及黎巴嫩政府的協調中心。為了鼓勵合作，美國財政部發出了一項 60 天的許可證，允許出口伊朗石油與化學品。然而，局勢依然不穩定；川普總統威脅將採取進一步軍事行動，而德黑蘭在以色列於黎巴嫩採取行動後，短暫地再次關閉了霍爾木茲海峽。

From an economic perspective, this temporary agreement has caused Brent crude oil prices to drop below $80 per barrel, although they are still higher than they were before the war. In Canada, previous supply problems led to a 3.2% annual inflation rate in May, mainly because petrol costs rose by 33.2%. In contrast, China has avoided major supply shocks. Because Beijing had already stored large amounts of oil and increased its use of electric vehicles, it was able to reduce its daily imports by about one-third during the conflict. Experts suggest that China's demand for oil may not return to previous levels because its storage is full and it may lose access to cheap Iranian oil once sanctions are lifted.

從經濟角度來看，這項臨時協議導致布倫特原油價格跌至每桶 80 美元以下，儘管仍高於戰前水平。在加拿大，之前的供應問題導致 5 月份年度通膨率達 3.2%，主因是汽油成本上漲了 33.2%。相比之下，中國避開了重大的供應衝擊。由於北京已儲備大量石油並增加了電動車的使用，因此在衝突期間，其每日進口量減少了約三分之一。專家建議，中國對石油的需求可能不會恢復到之前的水平，因為其儲油庫已滿，且一旦制裁解除，可能會失去獲得廉價伊朗石油的管道。

Financial markets have reacted with cautious optimism, which is seen in the rise of Asian stocks and a slight recovery in gold prices. Nevertheless, the Federal Reserve continues to maintain a strict policy, which keeps Treasury yields high. Markets expect that interest rates will likely increase by September to fight ongoing inflation.

金融市場反應為審慎樂觀，這體現在亞股上漲以及金價輕微回升。儘管如此，聯準會繼續維持嚴格政策，使國債殖利率保持高位。市場預期利率可能會在 9 月份提高，以對抗持續的通膨。

Although there is a 60-day plan to reach a permanent deal, the success of the ceasefire depends on whether regional militaries remain stable and if the Strait of Hormuz stays open.

雖然有一項 60 天的計劃以達成永久協議，但停火的成功與否，取決於區域軍方是否維持穩定以及霍爾木茲海峽是否保持開放。