This report examines how global climate patterns, specifically the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, combine with systemic water management failures in Delhi to create significant risks.

本報告探討全球氣候模式，特別是聖嬰現象（El Niño-Southern Oscillation），如何與德里系統性的水資源管理失效相結合，從而產生重大風險。

The global climate system is currently experiencing high instability, making it difficult to predict seasonal weather patterns. The World Meteorological Organization has stated that there is an 80% to 90% chance of El Niño conditions occurring between June 2026 and the end of that year. These events usually cause a lack of rain in India, where the summer monsoon provides most of the annual rainfall. Because nearly half of the Indian workforce works in agriculture, this unpredictable weather poses a serious threat to food security and farming stability.

全球氣候系統目前處於高度不穩定狀態，導致季節性天氣模式難以預測。世界氣象組織指出，2026年6月至年底之間，發生聖嬰現象的機率為 80% 至 90%。這些事件通常導致印度降雨不足，而印度的年度降雨量大部分由夏季季風提供。由於近半數印度勞動力從事農業，這種不可預測的天氣對糧食安全和農業穩定構成了嚴重威脅。

When comparing climate adaptation strategies, there is a clear difference between government-led and community-led approaches. In Gosaba, India, the government implemented large infrastructure projects that often ignored the needs of vulnerable groups and women. In contrast, projects in Khulna, Bangladesh, used community-based models, such as planting salt-tolerant crops and supporting women-led cooperatives. These initiatives proved more effective at reducing risks, suggesting that inclusive, nature-based governance is better than rigid engineering.

在比較氣候適應策略時，政府主導與社區主導的方法有明顯差異。在印度的 Gosaba，政府實施的大型基礎設施項目往往忽略了弱勢群體與女性的需求。相比之下，孟加拉 Khulna 的項目採用了社區基礎模型，例如種植耐鹽作物並支持女性領導的合作社。這些舉措證明在降低風險方面更為有效，表明包容性的自然治理優於僵化的工程手段。

At the same time, Delhi is facing a critical failure in how it manages its water resources. Although the Delhi Jal Board treats a large amount of water, there is still a shortage because 50% of the treated water is lost through leaks and theft. This inefficiency is actually a bigger problem than the lack of supply. Furthermore, Delhi relies on other states for over 90% of its water, which leads to political disputes. The city also fails to use its full sewage treatment capacity and has lost about 97% of its wetlands in South Delhi over the last 30 years.

與此同時，德里在水資源管理方面正面臨嚴重失效。儘管德里水務局（Delhi Jal Board）處理了大量用水，但由於 50% 的處理水透過滲漏與盜用流失，依然面臨短缺。這種低效率實際上比供應不足更嚴重。此外，德里 90% 以上的水源依賴其他邦，導致政治爭端。該市也未能充分利用污水處理能力，且在過去 30 年中，南德里約 97% 的濕地已經消失。

The combination of predicted El Niño events and poor urban management means that Delhi must move toward proactive risk management and local water governance to ensure long-term stability.

預測的聖嬰現象與糟糕的城市管理相结合，意味著德里必須轉向主動的風險管理與本地水資源治理，以確保長期穩定。