The conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has reached a dangerous stage. This is marked by the movement of paramilitary troops around the strategic city of el-Obeid and a growing humanitarian disaster.

蘇丹武裝部隊 (SAF) 與快速支援部隊 (RSF) 之間的衝突已達到危險階段。這體現於準軍隊在戰略城市歐拜德 (el-Obeid) 周邊的移動，以及日益嚴重的人道災難。

Military evidence suggests that the RSF is likely planning an attack on el-Obeid, a city of about 500,000 people. Because el-Obeid is a key transport link between Khartoum and Darfur, it is essential for moving military and aid supplies. Experts from the GIGA Institute emphasize that capturing this city would allow the RSF to use drones more effectively during the rainy season. This follows a pattern of violence seen in el-Fasher, where the UN reported mass killings that showed signs of genocide.

軍方證據顯示，RSF 可能正計劃攻擊人口約 50 萬人的歐拜德。由於歐拜德是喀圖穆與達爾富爾之間的重要交通樞紐，對於運送軍事與救援物資至關重要。GIGA 學院的專家強調，奪取該市將使 RSF 在雨季期間能更有效地使用無人機。這延續了在埃爾法希爾 (el-Fasher) 看到的暴力模式，聯合國報告指出該地發生的大規模殺戮顯示出種族滅絕的跡象。

International support for the two sides remains divided. The SAF controls the capital and northern areas with support from Egypt, Turkey, Russia, and Iran, whereas the RSF controls large parts of Darfur. Although the US and EU have placed sanctions on individual leaders, the UN has not sanctioned the groups as a whole. Furthermore, Human Rights Watch claims that the UAE provides vital support to the RSF, though the UAE denies this. Consequently, some diplomats are calling for the RSF to be labeled a terrorist organization to stop its funding.

國際社會對兩方的支持仍然分歧。SAF 在埃及、土耳其、俄羅斯與伊朗的支持下控制著首都及北方地區，而 RSF 則控制了達爾富而大部分地區。儘管美國與歐盟對個別領導人實施制裁，但聯合國尚未對這些團體整體採取制裁。此外，人權觀察聲稱阿聯酋為 RSF 提供關鍵支持，儘管阿聯酋對此予以否認。因此，部分外交官呼籲將 RSF 定義為恐怖組織，以阻止其資金來源。

The human cost of the war is devastating. The UN reports that over 14 million people have been forced from their homes, and the death toll is estimated between 40,000 and 250,000. In North Darfur, thousands have fled the Umbro area due to RSF raids. Additionally, reports from Khartoum and South Kordofan describe severe civilian casualties, including permanent injuries from shelling and the use of sexual violence as a weapon of war.

戰爭造成的人命損失極其慘重。聯合國報告指出，超過 1,400 萬人被迫離開家園，死亡人數估計在 4 萬至 25 萬之間。在北達爾富而，數以千計的人因 RSF 的襲擊而逃離 Umbro 地區。此外，來自喀圖穆與南科多法之的報告描述了嚴重的平民傷亡，包括砲擊導致的永久性傷害，以及將性暴力作為戰爭武器的使用。

Sudan is currently split between two rival military leaders. The immediate threat to el-Obeid could make the already severe displacement and human rights crisis even worse.

蘇丹目前被兩位對立的軍事領袖分而治之。歐拜德面臨的即時威脅可能會使原本已嚴重的流離失所與人權危機進一步惡化。