This report examines the factors that influence the success of penalty kicks, using data from World Cup shootouts and several professional European leagues.

本報告利用世界盃點球大戰及多個歐洲職業聯賽的數據，分析影響罰球成功率的因素。

The success of penalty shootouts depends on both technical skill and the advantages of the situation. Data from major competitions between 1970 and 2003 shows that teams who kick first have a 60.5% win rate. Furthermore, research suggests that winning the coin toss to choose the kicking order provides a greater advantage (60%) than simply kicking first (51%).

罰球大戰的成功與否，取決於技術能力與當時情境的優勢。根據 1970 年至 2003 年間各大賽事的數據顯示，先踢的球隊有 60.5% 的勝率。此外，研究指出，贏得擲硬幣以決定踢球順序所帶來的優勢（60%）比單純先踢（51%）更高。

Technical success varies by league. For example, research by Jamil et al. (2020) emphasizes that shots aimed at the center are more successful in the English Premier League, whereas shots at the bottom corners work better in La Liga. Additionally, a run-up of more than six steps is generally linked to higher success rates. Regarding power, a 2002 study asserted that the best results occur at about 75% of maximum power; this is because too much force often leads to missing the goal, while too little force makes it easier for the goalkeeper to save the ball.

不同聯賽的技術成功率有所差異。例如，Jamil 等人（2020年）的研究強調，在英超聯中，射向中央的球成功率較高；而是在西甲聯中，射向底角的球效果較佳。此外，助跑超過六步通常與較高的成功率相關。關於力度，2002 年的一項研究指出，以最大力度的 75% 左右射球效果最好；這是因為用力過猛經常導致射偏，而用力不足則容易被守門員化解。

There is also a balance between risk and reward. While shots aimed high are harder for goalkeepers to stop, they are more likely to miss the goal entirely. On the other hand, central shots are often successful because goalkeepers tend to dive to the sides, even though 20% to 30% of shots are actually aimed at the center. However, because predictability allows opponents to adapt, players must use a variety of shot placements. Finally, World Cup data shows that forwards have the highest success rate (75%), while the success rate generally drops as the shootout continues, reaching its lowest point with the eighth kicker (59.4%).

風險與回報之間也存在平衡。雖然高球較難被守門員攔截，但也更容易完全脫離球門範圍。另一方面，射向中央通常較為成功，因為守門員傾向向兩側撲球，儘管實際上僅有 20% 至 30% 的球是射向中央。然而，由於可預測性會讓對手適應，球員必須採取多樣化的射門位置。最後，世界盃數據顯示前鋒的成功率最高（75%），而成功率通常隨點球大戰的進行而下降，在第八位踢球者時達到最低點（59.4%）。

In conclusion, penalty success is the result of managing psychological pressure, using correct technical skills, and taking advantage of goalkeeper habits.

總結來說，罰球成功是管理心理壓力、運用正確技術以及利用守門員習慣的結果。