Global oil prices have dropped following a ceasefire between the United States and Iran, although shipping activities in the Strait of Hormuz are still limited.

隨著美國與伊朗達成停火協議，全球油價有所下跌，儘管霍爾木茲海峽的航運活動仍然有限。

The price of Brent crude oil has fallen significantly from a peak of over $188 to around $72.45 per barrel due to a fragile diplomatic agreement. However, market experts emphasize that these prices might be based on an overly optimistic view of stability. High insurance costs and the presence of sea mines continue to prevent the full return of shipping traffic. Furthermore, while Iran is using its location to gain control over the waterway, it is unlikely that a formal toll system will be created because Western countries and Gulf states oppose the idea.

由於一份脆弱的外交協議，布蘭特原油價格從最高超過 188 美元大幅下跌至每桶約 72.45 美元。然而，市場專家強調，這些價格可能是基於對穩定情況過於樂觀的看法。高昂的保險成本與海雷的存在，持續阻礙航運交通的全面恢復。此外，雖然伊朗利用其地理位置試圖控制該水道，但由於西方國家與海灣國家反對，不太可能建立正式的通行費制度。

Shipping companies remain cautious, and some have used hidden navigation methods, such as turning off tracking devices, to avoid sanctions. Despite these challenges, there has been a small recovery in commercial activity. According to MarineTraffic data, three container ships from Global Feeder Shipping entered the Gulf between June 26 and 28. These movements, connected to major companies like Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and MSC, suggest that trade routes between India, Pakistan, and the Red Sea are slowly reopening.

航運公司仍保持謹慎，部分公司採取隱秘導航方式（例如關閉追蹤設備）以規避制裁。儘管面臨這些挑戰，商業活動仍有小幅復甦。根據 MarineTraffic 的數據，Global Feeder Shipping 的三艘貨櫃船在 6 月 26 日至 28 日期間進入波斯灣。這些動向與馬士基 (Maersk)、赫伯羅特 (Hapag-Lloyd) 及 MSC 等大公司相關，顯示印度、巴基斯坦與紅海之間的貿易路線正在緩慢重新開放。

From a financial perspective, the oil market is now focusing on refilling empty reserves. Analysts assert that there is enough demand for more oil, with price predictions for 2027 ranging between $75 and $85. Consequently, the total stabilization of the market depends on the long-term success of the peace agreement and a reduction in insurance costs, which may take several months.

從財務角度來看，石油市場目前聚焦於填補空缺的儲量。分析師認為石油需求依然充足，預測 2027 年的價格將介於 75 美元至 85 美元之間。因此，市場能否完全穩定，取決於和平協議的長期成效以及保險成本的降低，而這可能需要數個月的時間。

Although some commercial shipping has returned, full maritime normality and price stability depend on whether the U.S.-Iran agreement lasts.

雖然部分商業航運已恢復，但海運是否能完全恢復正常及價格是否穩定，取決於美伊協議能否持久。