The global oil market is becoming more stable following a ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran. This has led to a drop in crude oil prices and a gradual return of shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

隨著美國與伊朗達成停火協議，全球石油市場正趨於穩定。這導致原油價格下跌，且霍爾木茲海峽的航運交通逐漸恢復。

Brent crude prices have dropped significantly, falling from nearly $120 to about $73 per barrel. This change was caused by several supply factors, such as the release of 1.3 billion barrels of oil from the Persian Gulf and the removal of US sanctions on Iranian exports. Furthermore, the International Energy Agency released 412 million barrels from strategic reserves, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE used alternative pipelines to keep exports moving. On the demand side, prices fell because Chinese oil imports dropped by 40% in May 2025, and many Asian countries are moving toward electricity and coal.

布倫特原油價格大幅下跌，從近 120 美元跌至每桶約 73 美元。這一變化是由於數個供應因素引起的，例如波斯灣釋放了 13 億桶石油，以及美國取消對伊朗出口的制裁。此外，國際能源總署從戰略儲備中釋放了 4.12 億桶石油，而沙烏地阿拉伯與阿聯酋則利用替代管道維持出口。在需求方面，價格下跌是因為中國在 2025 年 5 月的石油進口量下降了 40%，且許多亞洲國家正轉向使用電力與煤炭。

However, some structural problems still exist. Shipping companies are still paying high insurance costs, and there is still a risk that prices could change suddenly. For example, there are still naval mines in the water, and Iran has stated it wants to keep control over the Strait of Hormuz. To reduce these risks, companies are using new logistics models and finding different trade routes. Additionally, the diplomatic situation remains fragile because Iranian officials recently refused to have direct high-level talks with US representatives in Doha.

然而，一些結構性問題仍然存在。航運公司仍需支付高昂的保險成本，且價格可能突然變動的風險依然存在。例如，海域中仍有水雷，且伊朗表示希望維持對霍爾木茲海峽的控制。為了降低這些風險，企業正採取新的物流模式並尋找不同的貿易路線。此外，外交局勢依然脆弱，因為伊朗官員最近拒絕在多哈與美國代表進行直接的高層會談。

From a financial perspective, lower energy costs have improved economic forecasts. Experts suggest that inflation is less likely to exceed 4.2% in 2026, as energy prices were previously the main cause of inflation. Meanwhile, major producers like Saudi Aramco and ADNOC have increased direct sales to Asian markets to recover the money they lost during the conflict.

從財務角度來看，能源成本降低改善了經濟預測。專家認為，由於能源價格先前是通貨膨脹的主因，因此 2026 年通膨率超過 4.2% 的可能性較低。與此同時，沙烏地阿美與 ADNOC 等主要生產商已增加對亞洲市場的直接銷售，以挽回衝突期間損失的資金。

Although oil prices have mostly returned to their previous levels, the market could still be unstable due to ongoing diplomatic tensions and geopolitical risks.

雖然油價大多已回落至先前水平，但由於外交緊張局勢與地緣政治風險依然存在，市場可能仍不穩定。