Spotify and the prediction market platform Kalshi are investigating how fake streaming numbers were used to influence financial contracts.

Spotify 與預測市場平台 Kalshi 正在調查如何利用虛假串流數據來影響金融合約。

The problem began when Malcolm Todd's song, 'Earrings,' suddenly reached the top of the U.S. Spotify charts due to an unlikely increase in plays. Caleb Davies, an experienced trader, suggested that this was caused by 'botting,' where automated scripts are used to increase play counts. He argued that this was done specifically to win money from contracts on Kalshi. According to Davies' analysis, the chance of this happening naturally was almost zero.

問題始於 Malcolm Todd 的歌曲〈Earrings〉因播放量異常增加而突然登上美國 Spotify 榜首。資深交易員 Caleb Davies 指出，這是由「刷榜」（botting）造成的，即使用自動化腳本來增加播放次數。他認為這樣做是專門為了從 Kalshi 的合約中獲利。根據 Davies 的分析，這自然發生的機率幾乎為零。

Spotify later confirmed that the streaming was artificial and removed over 500,000 fake streams, which pushed the song down to fourth place. However, Kalshi had already paid out the traders based on the fake data. Consequently, Kalshi removed Spotify's branding from its markets and changed how it verifies chart results. While Kalshi's head of enforcement, Robert DeNault, suggested that traders might have been following activity on another platform called Polymarket, Polymarket denied this, stating that the artist was not available on their site.

Spotify 隨後確認該串流為人為操縱，並刪除了超過 50 萬次虛假串流，使該曲跌至第四名。然而，Kalshi 已經根據虛假數據向交易員支付了款項。因此，Kalshi 將 Spotify 的品牌標誌從其市場中移除，並更改了核實榜單結果的方式。Kalshi 的執法主管 Robert DeNault 認為交易員可能是在追隨另一個名為 Polymarket 的平台的活動，但 Polymarket 予以否認，表示該藝人在其網站上並不存在。

This incident highlights a serious weakness in prediction markets, as they can be easily manipulated. Amanda Fischer from Better Markets emphasized that these platforms often offer contracts without ensuring they are protected from such interference. This is part of a larger pattern of integrity issues, including a previous case where a U.S. soldier allegedly used secret information for financial gain. Currently, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is monitoring these platforms as they continue to attract large investments.

此次事件凸顯了預測市場的一個嚴重弱點，即容易被操縱。Better Markets 的 Amanda Fischer 強調，這些平台經常提供合約，卻未能確保其免受此類干擾。這是更大規模誠信問題模式的一部分，包括之前一名美國士兵涉嫌利用秘密資訊獲取財政利益的案例。目前，商品期貨交易委員會（CFTC）正持續監控這些平台，因為它們不斷吸引大量投資。

While Spotify has fixed its chart data, Kalshi is still investigating the incident and making changes to its platform.

雖然 Spotify 已修正其榜單數據，但 Kalshi 仍在調查此事件並對其平台進行調整。