The war between Russia and Ukraine has entered a new stage. This period is marked by Ukrainian long-distance air attacks and increasing Russian attempts to provoke NATO countries along their eastern borders.

俄羅斯與烏克蘭之間的戰爭已進入新階段。這一時期的特點在於烏克蘭發起遠距離空中襲擊，以及俄羅斯不斷嘗試在東部邊境挑釁北約國家。

Ukraine is currently focusing on a strategy of 'long-range sanctions.' By using drones, they are attacking Russian oil terminals and naval bases to damage Russia's economy. The Ukrainian General Staff emphasized that about 42.74% of Russia's oil refining capacity has been disabled, which has caused fuel shortages in over 40 Russian regions. On the other hand, Russian forces still have more soldiers and weapons in the Donbas region. While the Kremlin claims they have captured Kostiantynivka, Ukrainian officials have denied this and called it false information.

烏克蘭目前正專注於「遠程制裁」策略。他們利用無人機攻擊俄羅斯的石油終端和海軍基地，以損害俄羅斯經濟。烏克蘭總參謀部強調，俄羅斯約 42.74% 的煉油能力已失效，導致 40 多個俄羅斯地區出現燃料短缺。另一方面，俄軍在頓巴斯地區仍擁有更多士兵和武器。儘管克里姆林宮聲稱已佔領科斯蒂安廷尼夫卡，但烏克蘭官員對此予以否認，並稱其為虛假訊息。

At the same time, intelligence from the US and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggests that Moscow is using a 'Phase Zero' strategy to test NATO's strength. This involves creating problems on Polish territory, such as hybrid attacks or staged accidents. The goal is to weaken Polish sovereignty and pressure Western allies to stop sending military aid to Kyiv. These actions are seen as attempts to show that the alliance is weak without starting a full-scale war.

同時，美國與戰爭研究所 (ISW) 的情報顯示，莫斯科正利用「零號階段」策略來測試北約的強度。這包括在波蘭領土製造問題，例如混合攻擊或精心策劃的事故。其目標是削弱波蘭主權，並向西方盟友施壓，使其停止向基輔提供軍事援助。這些行動被視為在不發動全面戰爭的情況下，試圖證明該聯盟十分脆弱。

Furthermore, the Russian state is showing signs of serious economic pressure. Reports suggest that nearly 50% of the national budget is now spent on defense. This financial imbalance, along with the loss of many soldiers, indicates that the Russian system is becoming exhausted. However, Russia has recently changed its nuclear rules and closed borders to Finland and the Baltic States, which suggests they may escalate the conflict if they feel their survival is at risk.

此外，俄羅斯國家正顯示出嚴重的經濟壓力跡象。報告指出，目前近 50% 的國家預算被用於國防。這種財務失衡，加上大量士兵的損失，表明俄羅斯體系正趨於疲憊。然而，俄羅斯最近更改了核武規則，並對芬蘭及波羅的海國家關閉邊境，這表明如果他們感到生存受威脅，可能會升級衝突。

The conflict remains unstable and continues to wear down both sides. The risk of the war spreading to other regions is increasing as Russia tests NATO's collective defense systems.

衝突依然不穩定，且持續消耗雙方。隨著俄羅斯測試北約的集體防禦系統，戰爭擴散至其他地區的風險正在增加。