A report from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) analyzes the expected effects of the El Niño weather pattern on India's power grid from July 2026 to June 2027.

能源與潔淨空氣研究中心 (CREA) 的一份報告分析了聖嬰現象在 2026 年 7 月至 2027 年 6 月期間，對印度電網的預期影響。

This climate shift is expected to cause two main problems: a drop in hydroelectric and wind energy because of less rain and lower wind speeds, and an increase in electricity use for cooling. CREA estimates that cooling needs could rise by 10 TWh, which may lead to a total energy shortage of about 18 TWh. Furthermore, if this gap is filled using carbon-heavy energy sources, the report suggests that 17 million tonnes of CO2 could be released, with some scenarios predicting even higher coal use.

這次氣候轉變預計會造成兩個主要問題：一是因雨量減少和風速降低，導致水力與風能下降；二是冷卻對電力的需求增加。CREA 估計冷卻需求可能會增加 10 TWh，這可能導致總能源短缺約 18 TWh。此外，若使用高碳排放的能源來填補此缺口，報告指出可能會排放 1,700 萬噸二氧化碳，而某些情境下預測煤炭使用量會更高。

Currently, India's ability to handle these changes is limited because coal plants are not flexible enough. Last year, this problem forced the grid to reduce renewable energy by 2.1 TWh to keep the system stable. In contrast, solar energy remains more stable during El Niño and already provides 24% of daytime power. Recent data shows a positive trend; while total energy production rose by 1% in 2025, coal output fell by 4% as renewables grew by 22%. Consequently, the report emphasizes that improving battery storage and updating the grid are the best ways to reach the 2030 target of 500 GW of non-fossil power and manage record demand peaks.

目前印度應對這些變化的能力有限，因為煤電廠不夠靈活。去年，此問題迫使電網減少了 2.1 TWh 的再生能源以維持系統穩定。相比之下，太陽能-在聖嬰現象期間較為穩定，且已提供白天 24% 的電力。最新數據顯示趨勢正面；雖然 2025 年總能源產量上升了 1%，但隨著再生能源增長 22%，煤炭產量下降了 4%。因此，報告強調，改善電池儲能與更新電網是達成 2030 年 500 GW 非化石電力目標並應對紀錄需求峰值的最佳方法。

India urgently needs to increase its solar and battery storage capacity to keep the power grid stable during extreme weather events.

印度迫切需要增加太陽能與電池儲能容量，以便在極端天氣期間維持電網穩定。