The global energy sector is starting to recover after the United States and Iran signed an agreement. This deal has allowed the Strait of Hormuz to reopen and has led to an increase in oil production quotas from OPEC+ countries.

在美國與伊朗簽署協議後，全球能源部門開始恢復。這項協議使霍爾木茲海峽重新開放，並導致 OPEC+ 國家的石油產量配額增加。

The political situation changed significantly after US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a memorandum of understanding on June 17, ending the conflict that began in February 2026. As a result, ships have gradually started moving through the Strait of Hormuz again, although traffic is still 40% lower than it was before the war. Consequently, Brent crude oil prices have dropped from a peak of $126 per barrel in April to around $72, returning to normal levels.

在美國總統川普與伊朗總統佩澤什基安於 6 月 17 日簽署諒解備忘錄後，政治局勢發生顯著變化，結束了 2026 年 2 月開始的衝突。因此，船隻已逐漸開始重新通過霍爾木茲海峽，儘管交通量仍比戰爭前低 40%。隨之而來的是，布蘭特原油價格從 4 月最高每桶 126 美元下跌至約 72 美元，回歸正常水平。

In response, OPEC+ has decided to increase oil production. Seven countries, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, will increase their daily output by 188,000 barrels starting in August. Analysts emphasize that this increase is mainly due to the clearing of old oil stocks, such as 50 million barrels from Iran, which could not be moved during the naval blockade. Meanwhile, the economic impact varies by region. For example, Türkiye's trade balance improved because strong exports to Europe offset the high cost of energy. In contrast, sub-Saharan Africa is still struggling; S&P Ratings lowered GDP forecasts for South Africa and Nigeria due to unstable fuel prices.

對此，OPEC+ 決定增加石油產量。包括沙烏地阿拉伯與俄羅斯在內的七個國家，將從 8 月起每日增加 18.8 萬桶產量。分析師強調，此次增產主因在於清理舊的石油庫存，例如伊朗在海軍封鎖期間無法運出的 5,000 萬桶原油。同時，經濟影響因地區而異。例如，土耳其的貿易餘額有所改善，因為對歐洲的強勁出口抵消了高昂的能源成本。相比之下，撒哈拉以南非洲仍處於困境；由於燃料價格不穩定，標準普爾評級下調了南非與尼日利亞的 GDP 預測。

Finally, demand from major buyers is changing. China, the main importer of Iranian oil, has reduced its imports by 29% as of May because it is shifting toward green energy. Furthermore, the future of the market depends on Iranian policy, as officials have suggested they may introduce transit fees after a 60-day period of free passage.

最後，主要買家的需求正在改變。中國作為伊朗石油的主要進口國，截至 5 月進口量減少了 29%，因為其正轉向綠色能源。此外，市場的未來取決於伊朗的政策，因為官員暗示在 60 天的免費通行期後，他們可能會引入過境費。

Although energy prices have returned to normal and production is rising, global markets are still vulnerable to political tensions and changing demand in Asia.

雖然能源價格已回歸正常且產量正在上升，但全球市場仍易受政治緊張局勢與亞洲需求變化的影響。