The Japanese yen has dropped to its lowest level in 40 years compared to the US dollar, causing concerns about government intervention and the stability of global bond markets.

日圓兌美元匯率跌至 40 年來最低水平，引發對政府干預及全球債券市場穩定性的擔憂。

The current value of the yen is mainly caused by the large difference between US and Japanese interest rates. For many years, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept interest rates negative, which encouraged investors to borrow cheap yen to buy assets in other countries that offered higher returns. Although the BoJ has recently started to raise rates slowly, the gap between Japanese and US yields remains large. Furthermore, high inflation in the US has led the Federal Reserve to keep rates high, which continues to make the dollar stronger.

日圓目前的價值主要是由於美國與日本之間的利率差距過大。多年來，日本銀行 (BoJ) 將利率維持在負值，鼓勵投資者借入低成本日圓，以購買其他回報較高國家的資產。儘管日銀近期開始緩慢調高利率，但日美收益率的差距依然顯著。此外，美國的高通膨導致聯準會維持高利率，使美元持續走強。

At the same time, Japan is facing a conflict between its monetary and fiscal policies. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has argued for a careful approach to raising interest rates while spending heavily on a $190 billion stimulus package and new technology. Normally, this combination would cause problems in the bond market; however, because the BoJ owns so many domestic bonds, the usual market rules do not apply. Consequently, the exchange rate has become the main way to measure the expected difference in yields.

同時，日本正面臨貨幣政策與財政政策之間的衝突。首相高市早苗主張在調高利率時應採取謹慎態度，同時投入 1,900 億美元的刺激方案及新技術。通常情況下，這種組合會導致債券市場出現問題；然而，由於日銀持有大量國內債券，一般的市場規則並不適用。因此，匯率成為衡量預期收益率差異的主要方式。

To stop the yen from falling, the BoJ has spent over $100 billion on currency interventions. However, analysts from Goldman Sachs and OCBC emphasize that these actions will only provide temporary relief unless there is a major change in the economy. Moreover, there is a systemic risk if Japan decides to sell its large holdings of US Treasury bonds. If the BoJ is forced to sell these dollar assets to protect the yen, it could increase borrowing costs for the US and reduce liquidity in the global bond market.

為了阻止日圓下跌，日銀已投入超過 1,000 億美元進行貨幣干預。然而，高盛與華僑銀行 (OCBC) 的分析師強調，除非經濟發生重大變化，否則這些行動僅能提供暫時性的緩解。此外，若日本決定出售其持有的大量美國國債，將會產生系統性風險。如果日銀被迫出售這些美元資產以支撐日圓，可能會提高美國的借貸成本，並降低全球債券市場的流動性。

The yen remains at historic lows, and investors expect more volatility depending on future government interventions and changes in US Federal Reserve policy.

日圓仍處於歷史低點，投資者預計未來將視政府干預及聯準會政策的變動而更加劇波動。