Weather forecasts indicate the start of a major El Niño cycle. This could become a 'super' event, which would seriously affect climate stability and food security across Africa.

天氣預報指出一個大型聖嬰週期即將開始。這可能會演變成一次「超級」事件，將嚴重影響整個非洲的氣候穩定與糧食安全。

This phenomenon is caused by unusually warm sea temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. It is expected to cause different types of weather problems: Southern Africa will likely face severe droughts, while Eastern and Central Africa may experience heavy rain and flooding. Experts emphasize that although human-caused climate change did not start El Niño, the fact that global temperatures have risen by 1.4 degrees Celsius makes these events more severe. A 'super' El Niño, where temperatures rise by 2 degrees or more, increases the risk of total failure in farming and public health systems.

這種現象是由太平洋中部與東部海水溫度異常升高引起的。預計將導致不同類型的天氣問題：南部非洲可能會面臨嚴重乾旱，而東部與中部非洲則可能遭遇豪雨與洪水。專家強調，雖然人為氣候變化並非聖嬰現象的起因，但全球氣溫上升了 1.4 度，使得這些事件變得更為嚴重。若水溫上升 2 度或更多而演變成「超級」聖嬰現象，將增加農業與公共衛生系統完全崩潰的風險。

International organizations have responded, but there is a gap between scientific warnings and actual policy. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Food Programme have requested over $200 million to help 8.8 million people in 22 high-risk countries, such as Ethiopia and Mozambique. Although some countries have created early warning systems and new laws, these efforts are limited by a lack of money and delays in receiving emergency funds. Furthermore, climate shocks combined with existing problems—such as national debt and regional conflicts—increase the risk of mass migration. The World Bank predicts that climate change could force 86 million more people into African cities by 2050.

國際組織已作出回應，但科學警告與實際政策之間仍存在差距。聯合國糧食及農業組織與世界糧食計劃署已申請超過 2 億美元，以援助 22 個高風險國家（如衣索比亞與莫三比克）的 880 萬人。雖然部分國家建立了預警系統與新法律，但這些努力受限於資金匱乏以及緊急撥款的延遲。此外，氣候衝擊結合現有問題（如國家債務與區域衝突），增加了大規模遷徙的風險。世界銀行預測，到 2050 年，氣候變化可能會迫使多出 8600 萬人遷往非洲城市。

To adapt, experts suggest moving away from single-sector solutions toward a combined plan for water, energy, and health. They recommend that farmers grow a wider variety of climate-resilient crops, such as sorghum and millet, instead of relying only on maize and wheat. However, this success depends on better cooperation between international banks and local institutions to ensure that funding is easy to access and fits local needs.

為了適應，專家建議從單一部門的解決方案轉向水資源、能源與健康的綜合計劃。他們建議農民種植更多樣化的耐候作物，如高粱和小米，而非僅依賴玉米和小麥。然而，這項成功的關鍵在於國際銀行與本地機構之間能否有更好的合作，以確保資金易於獲取且符合本地需求。

Africa is entering a dangerous period of weather instability. The ability to manage a potential super El Niño depends on the fast arrival of international funding and the use of local adaptation strategies.

非洲正進入一個危險的天氣不穩定時期。能否有效應對潛在的超級聖嬰現象，取決於國際資金的到位速度以及本地適應策略的運用。