Weather agencies and university researchers have updated their forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, expecting fewer storms to develop than usual.

氣象機構與大學研究人員更新了對 2026 年大西洋颶風季的預測，預計發展的風暴數量將少於往年。

The decrease in predicted storms is mainly caused by the early start of El Niño, a warming pattern in the Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon creates strong winds in the upper atmosphere over the Atlantic, which disrupts the structure of tropical storms and prevents them from becoming stronger. The Climate Prediction Center states there is a 63% chance that this event will be one of the most significant since 1950, while AccuWeather suggests a 70% chance of a 'Super El Niño' lasting until early 2027.

預測風暴減少主要是由於厄爾尼諾（太平洋的一種暖化模式）提前開始。這種現象會在大西洋上層大氣中產生強風，擾亂熱帶風暴的結構，使其無法變得更強。氣候預測中心指出，此次事件有 63% 的機率成為 1950 年以來最顯著的事件之一，而 AccuWeather 則認為有 70% 的機率出現持續到 2027 年初的「超級厄爾尼諾」。

Different organizations have provided slightly different numbers, but they all agree that activity will be lower. For example, Colorado State University reduced its forecast from 13 named storms to nine, including four hurricanes. Similarly, AccuWeather adjusted its range to between eight and 14 named storms. Despite these lower numbers, AccuWeather still expects three to five storms to hit the U.S., emphasizing that the southeastern coast, the Gulf Coast, and the Caribbean remain high-risk areas.

不同機構提供的數據略有差異，但均認同活動將會降低。例如，科羅拉多州立大學將預測從 13 個命名風暴下調至 9 個，其中包括 4 個颶風。同樣地，AccuWeather 將其範圍調整為 8 至 14 個命名風暴。儘管數字較低，AccuWeather 仍預計將有 3 至 5 個風暴襲擊美國，並強調東南海岸、墨西哥灣沿岸及加勒比海仍為高風險地區。

However, some uncertainty remains due to historical data and changing variables. While the 2025 season had 13 named storms and no U.S. landfalls, the long-term average is 14 storms per year. Current data show a 32% chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. coast and a 35% chance for the Caribbean. Researchers emphasized that changes in ocean temperatures are still a key factor that could lead to further changes in these predictions.

然而，由於歷史數據與變數的影響，仍存在一些不確定性。雖然 2025 年有 13 個命名風暴且未登陸美國，但長期平均每年為 14 個風暴。目前數據顯示，重大颶風襲擊美國海岸的機率為 32%，加勒比海則為 35%。研究人員強調，海洋溫度的變化仍是關鍵因素，可能會導致這些預測進一步變動。

Current data suggest that the 2026 season will be quieter, but officials warn that people living on the coast must stay prepared regardless of the lower statistics.

目前數據顯示 2026 年將會較為平靜，但官方警告，無論統計數據是否較低，居住在沿海地區的人們必須做好準備。