China has increased its military and paramilitary activities across the Pacific and South China Sea. This happens at a time when international diplomatic tensions are rising again regarding the 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration.

中國在太平洋與南中國海增加了軍事與準軍事活動。此時正值國際外交對 2016 年常設仲裁法院裁決的緊張局勢再次升溫。

Beijing is using a strategy to make its military presence in disputed waters seem normal and routine. This is shown through several activities, such as joint bomber patrols with Russia, sending coast guard ships east of Taiwan, and testing long-range missiles from a nuclear submarine. Experts emphasize that these actions are intended to signal a permanent change in regional security, specifically targeting the U.S., Japan, and the Philippines. By establishing a regular presence beyond the First Island Chain, China aims to make it more difficult and costly for external countries to intervene.

北京正採取一種策略，使其在爭議水域的軍事存在看起來像是常態且例行。這體現在多項活動中，例如與俄羅斯進行聯合轟炸機巡邏、派遣海警船前往台灣東方，以及從核潛艇測試長程飛彈。專家強調，這些行動旨在發出區域安全將發生永久性改變的訊號，特別是針對美國、日本與菲律賓。透過在第一島鏈之外建立例行存在，中國旨在增加外部國家干預的難度與成本。

At the same time, tensions have grown at Scarborough Shoal, where China has created a nature reserve and deployed ships. Observers believe this is a test to see how the international community reacts to a potential permanent structure. Meanwhile, the Philippines is asserting its sovereignty with support from the U.S. through joint patrols and advanced weaponry, such as the NMESIS missile system. Consequently, Beijing asserts that this military cooperation is an attempt to stop China's growth rather than a way to ensure stability.

與此同時，黃岩礁的緊張局勢有所增加，中國在當地建立了自然保護區並部署船隻。觀察者認為，這是為了測試國際社會對潛在永久性設施的反應。與此同時，菲律賓在美國支持下，透過聯合巡邏及使用如 NMESIS 飛彈系統等先進武器來主張主權。因此，北京聲稱這種軍事合作是企圖阻止中國成長，而非確保穩定之舉。

Diplomatic relations have also worsened following the 10th anniversary of the 2016 Hague ruling, which rejected China's 'nine-dash line' claims. A group of 14 nations, including the U.S. and Japan, reaffirmed that the ruling is legally binding. In response, China dismissed the decision as invalid. Furthermore, Chinese officials accused Japan of interfering in regional affairs, highlighting Japan's participation in military exercises and the use of missiles as destabilizing factors.

在 2016 年海牙裁決十週年後，外交關係亦有所惡化，該裁決否定了中國的「九段線」主張。包括美國與日本在內的 14 個國家重新確認該裁決具有法律約束力。對此，中國將該決定視為無效。此外，中國官員指責日本干涉區域事務，強調日本參與軍事演習及使用飛彈是導致局勢不穩的因素。

The current situation is defined by China's ongoing effort to make its military presence seem normal and a growing diplomatic gap over the legal status of the South China Sea.

目前的局勢定義在於中國持續嘗試將軍事存在常態化，以及對南中國海法律地位日益增加的外交分歧。