Alberta is planning to hold a referendum on October 19 to decide whether to start the legal process of leaving the Canadian federation.

亞伯塔省計劃於 10 月 19 日舉行公投，以決定是否啟動脫離加拿大聯邦的法律程序。

There is a significant disagreement regarding the economic future of the province. Supporters, such as the Alberta Prosperity Project (APP), claim that stopping federal tax payments would create a $45 billion surplus and greatly increase energy revenues by 2045. However, many economists and city leaders argue that this move would cause investors to leave and create financial instability. For example, the mayors of Calgary and Edmonton emphasized that the current debate has already discouraged investment. Furthermore, economist Trevor Tombe warned that the resulting uncertainty could lead to the loss of 50,000 jobs, similar to what happened after Brexit.

關於該省的經濟前景存在顯著分歧。支持者如「亞伯塔繁榮計劃」(APP) 聲稱，停止向聯邦納稅將創造 450 億加元的盈餘，並在 2045 年前大幅增加能源收入。然而，許多經濟學家和城市領導人認為，此舉將導致投資者撤離並造成財務不穩定。例如，卡加利與埃德蒙頓的市長強調，目前的爭論已對投資產生負面影響。此外，經濟學家 Trevor Tombe 警告，由此產生的不確定性可能導致 5 萬個工作崗位流失，類似於英國脫歐後的情況。

Legal and constitutional issues also make independence difficult. While the APP asserts that citizens would keep their Canadian passports, legal experts from the University of Alberta and University of Ottawa argue that citizenship is not guaranteed without federal agreement. According to the Clarity Act of 2000, leaving Canada requires a 'clear majority' and negotiated terms. Prime Minister Mark Carney clarified that while the October vote is only an initial question, any final binding vote must follow the Act's rules. This means the province would have to negotiate national debt, currency, and diplomatic recognition.

法律與憲法問題也使獨立變得困難。雖然 APP 主張公民將保留加拿大護照，但亞伯塔大學與渥太華大學的法律專家認為，若無聯邦協議，公民身份無法獲得保障。根據 2000 年的《清晰法案》(Clarity Act)，脫離加拿大需要「明確的多數」支持及協商條款。總理 Mark Carney 澄清，雖然 10 月的投票僅為初步詢問，但任何最終具約束力的投票必須遵循該法案的規定。這意味著該省必須就國家債務、貨幣及外交承認進行協商。

Additionally, there is strong opposition from Indigenous leaders and the general public. Treaty 8 Grand Chief Trevor Mercredi described the government's actions as illegal because they failed to consult First Nations. He stated that his community might use civil disobedience to stop the process. Public opinion is also split; a recent poll shows that 70% of Albertans prefer to stay in Canada, and many people say they would move to another province if Alberta became independent.

此外，原住民領袖與一般大眾也強烈反對。第 8 號條約的大酋長 Trevor Mercredi 稱政府的行為是非法的，因為他們未能諮詢原住民族。他表示，其社群可能會採取公民不服從行動以阻止該程序。公眾意見亦相當分裂；近期民調顯示，70% 的亞伯塔省民傾向留在加拿大，許多人表示若亞伯塔獨立，他們將搬遷至其他省分。

The situation remains very uncertain, as the outcome depends on the October 19 vote and how the conflicting economic and legal arguments are resolved.

情況依然非常不確定，因為結果取決於 10 月 19 日的投票，以及那些衝突的經濟與法律論點如何解決。