The UK's retail sector and general economy are currently seeing an unstable recovery following the political disruptions caused by the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran.

由於美國、以色列與伊朗之間的衝突引起政治動盪，英國的零售業與整體經濟目前正處於一個不穩定的復甦期。

In May, the retail sector showed a partial recovery in customer activity, reversing the sharp drop in visitors seen in April. According to data from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) and BDO, while total visitor numbers were still lower than last year, the decline was not as severe as the 10.7% drop recorded in April. Interestingly, high street stores performed better than shopping centers and retail parks. This difference was caused by extreme weather at the end of May, which discouraged people from visiting large complexes but encouraged local shopping.

在五月，零售業的顧客活動出現部分復甦，扭轉了四月客流量急跌的情況。根據英國零售聯盟 (BRC) 與 BDO 的數據，雖然總客流量仍然低於去年，但下跌幅度不像四月記錄的 10.7% 如此嚴重。有趣的是，街道商店的表現優於購物中心與零售園區。這種差異是由於五月底的極端天氣，導致人們不願前往大型綜合設施，反而鼓勵了本地購物。

From an economic perspective, consumer confidence has grown at its fastest rate since 2021, with the YouGov/CEBR index rising to 104.9. This growth is due to people feeling more secure about their household finances and the value of their homes. Consequently, the OECD has increased its annual GDP growth forecast for the UK from 0.7% to 0.9%. However, this positive trend is weakened by an unexpected rise in unemployment to 5% and the expected increase in the energy price cap in July.

從經濟角度來看，消費者信心增長速度為 2021 年以來最快，YouGov/CEBR 指數上升至 104.9。這一增長是因為人們對其家庭財務和房屋價值感到更加安全。因此，OECD 將英國的年度 GDP 增長預測從 0.7% 上調至 0.9%。然而，失業率出乎意料地升至 5%，加上預計七月將調高能源價格上限，削弱了這一正面趨勢。

Corporate pressures also remain a concern. Bank of England data shows that 57% of companies plan to raise prices over the next year because of energy shocks caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Although oil prices have dropped from $120 in April to around $95, more than two-thirds of businesses expect lower profits due to high transport and energy costs. Furthermore, analysts suggest that the strong growth in early 2026 might be because consumers bought items early to avoid price hikes, which could lead to lower spending in the future.

企業壓力依然令人擔憂。英國央行數據顯示，由於霍爾木茲海峽封閉引起的能源衝擊，57% 的公司計劃在未來一年內漲價。雖然油價從四月的 120 美元跌至約 95 美元，但超過三分之二的企業預計，由於運輸與能源成本高昂，利潤將會下降。此外，分析師指出 2026 年初的強勁增長，可能是因為消費者為了避免漲價而提前購買商品，這可能會導致未來的消費減少。

The UK economy is currently in a delicate balance, where short-term improvements in consumer confidence are offset by inflation and global political instability.

英國經濟目前處於一個微妙的平衡點，消費者信心的短期改善被通貨膨脹與全球政治不穩定所抵銷。