The United States economy showed unexpected strength in employment during May. This situation makes it more difficult for the Federal Reserve to balance stable prices with the goal of maximum employment.

美國經濟在五月份的就業表現出乎預期地強勢。這種情況使得聯準會更難在穩定物價與最高就業目標之間取得平衡。

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 172,000 new jobs were added in May, which was much higher than experts had predicted. This growth happened mostly in the leisure, hospitality, and local government sectors, while healthcare also continued to grow. On the other hand, the financial sector lost 22,000 positions, continuing a downward trend. Although the unemployment rate stayed at 4.3%, a 'no-hire, no-fire' trend has appeared. This means few people are quitting their jobs, and recent graduates or long-term unemployed people are finding it hard to get hired.

勞工統計局報告指出，五月份增加了 172,000 個新職位，遠高於專家的預測。此增長主要發生在休閒、款待業及地方政府部門，而醫療保健業也持續成長。另一方面，金融部門減少了 22,000 個職位，延續了下降趨勢。雖然失業率維持在 4.3%，但出現了一種「不招不裁」的趨勢。這意味著很少有人辭職，而剛畢業或長期失業的人很難被錄用。

At the same time, the Federal Reserve is struggling with high inflation, which was worsened by the conflict in Iran. Inflation reached 3.8% in April, the highest level in three years. Because of this, officials disagree on how to read the data. New Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized the use of 'trimmed mean' measures to suggest inflation is closer to the 2% target. However, other officials, such as Lorie Logan and Beth Hammack, asserted that these measures might hide the real inflation trends. Furthermore, policymakers are debating whether artificial intelligence will actually help lower prices.

與此同時，聯準會正與高通膨奮鬥，而伊朗的衝突使情況惡化。通膨在四月份達到 3.8%，為三年來最高水平。因此，官員在如何解讀數據上存在分歧。新任主席 Kevin Warsh 強調使用「修整平均值」指標，以暗示通膨已接近 2% 的目標。然而，其他官員如 Lorie Logan 和 Beth Hammack 則主張，這些指標可能會掩蓋真實的通膨趨勢。此外，政策制定者正在辯論人工智慧是否真的有助於降低價格。

External factors are also playing a role, such as the impact of the Iran war on energy costs and the effect of 2025 tax cuts. In California, AI investments have helped the economy grow faster than the national average, even though the state's unemployment rate rose to 5.3%. Globally, the situation varies; Canada saw a surprise increase in jobs, whereas Türkiye and Taiwan are still struggling with high prices, which may force them to raise interest rates.

外部因素也在發揮作用，例如伊朗戰爭對能源成本的影響以及 2025 年減稅的效果。在加州，AI 投資幫助經濟成長速度超過全國平均，儘管該州的失業率上升至 5.3%。全球情況不一；加拿大的就業人數意外增加，而土耳其和台灣仍受困於高物價，這可能會迫使它們調高利率。

The U.S. job market remains strong. Consequently, it is unlikely that interest rates will be reduced soon, and there is a higher chance that they will increase to fight inflation.

美國就業市場維持強勢。因此，短期內不太可能降息，反而更有可能調高利率以對抗通膨。