The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, started by Iran after military actions by the United States and Israel in February, has caused major disruptions to global energy supplies and economic stability.

伊朗在二月美國與以色列採取軍事行動後封鎖了霍爾木茲海峽，導致全球能源供應與經濟穩定受到嚴重干擾。

The conflict began after U.S. and Israeli forces carried out strikes that resulted in the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. In response, Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz and attacked regional energy sites. This has stopped the transport of about twenty percent of the world's oil and important fertilizers. Although the Trump administration used strategic communication to keep markets stable by using global oil reserves to prevent price spikes, these reserves are now at their lowest levels in decades. Consequently, if a diplomatic solution is not found soon, prices may rise sharply again.

衝突始於美國與以色列軍隊發動襲擊導致最高領袖哈梅內死亡後。作為回應，伊朗封鎖了霍爾木茲海峽並攻擊區域能源設施。這導致全球約百分之二十的石油與重要肥料停止運輸。雖然川普政府透過策略性溝通，利用全球石油儲量防止價格飆升以維持市場穩定，但這些儲量目前已處於數十年來的最低水平。因此，如果不能儘快找到外交解決方案，價格可能會再次大幅上升。

Different leaders have different views on who benefits from this crisis. Igor Sechin, CEO of Rosneft, emphasized that U.S. energy companies have gained an unfair advantage, with potential extra profits of $60 billion by 2026 if oil stays at $100 per barrel. However, the crisis has also pushed the world toward renewable energy faster. For example, China has seen a large increase in solar and electric vehicle exports, as countries in South and East Asia try to find new energy sources to reduce their dependence on imports.

不同的領導人對於誰從這次危機中獲益持有不同看法。俄羅斯石油公司執行長 Igor Sechin 強調，美國能源公司獲得了不公平的優勢，若油價維持在每桶 100 美元，到 2026 年可能會獲得 600 億美元的額外利潤。然而，這次危機也推動世界更快地轉向可再生能源。例如，由於南亞與東亞國家試圖尋找新能源以減少對進口的依賴，中國的太陽能與電動車出口大幅增加。

Economic data suggests that recovery will take a long time. The OECD predicts that global GDP growth will drop to around 2.5% and inflation will continue until 2027. The farming sector is especially at risk because energy and fertilizer costs have risen significantly, leading to fewer crops being planted in Southeast Asia. Furthermore, the disruption of natural gas (LNG) from Qatar threatens energy security in Europe for the winter, which might force countries to buy Russian gas again or reduce industrial production.

經濟數據顯示，恢復將需要很長時間。OECD 預測全球 GDP 增長將下降至 2.5% 左右，且通貨膨脹將持續到 2027 年。農業部門面臨特別大的風險，因為能源與肥料成本顯著上升，導致東南亞種植的作物減少。此外，卡တာ液化天然氣 (LNG) 的中斷威脅到歐洲冬季的能源安全，這可能會迫使各國再次購買俄羅斯天然氣或削減工業生產。

Even though there is a temporary ceasefire, the global economy remains at risk of inflation and energy instability until a full agreement is reached and production returns to normal.

儘管目前有暫時性停火，但在達成全面協議且生產恢復正常之前，全球經濟仍面臨通貨膨脹與能源不穩定的風險。