Global oil markets are currently experiencing significant instability. This is due to a combination of political conflicts in the Middle East and production problems in Western Canada.

全球石油市場目前正經歷嚴重的不穩定。這是由於中東政治衝突與西加拿大生產問題共同導致的。

The current instability is mainly caused by the conflict between the United States and Iran, which has blocked about twenty percent of global oil and gas shipments at the Strait of Hormuz. Rystad Energy emphasized that this disruption is one of the most severe supply shocks in recent history, as nearly one billion barrels were removed from international markets over three months. Consequently, U.S. oil reserves have dropped by 79 million barrels since late February, leading to very low storage levels at the Cushing hub.

目前的不穩定主要是由美國與伊朗之間的衝突引起，這導致霍爾木茲海峽約 20% 的全球石油與天然氣運輸受阻。Rystad Energy 強調，這次中斷是近代史上最嚴重的供應衝擊之一，因為在三個月內有將近十億桶石油從國際市場中消失。因此，美國石油儲量自二月下旬以來已下降 7,900 萬桶，導致 Cushing 樞紐的儲油量處於極低水平。

At the same time, supply chains in Western Canada have faced serious problems. Bad weather in northern Alberta and a power failure at Cenovus Energy facilities forced the company to declare 'force majeure,' resulting in a ten percent drop in oil sands production. Because refineries in the U.S. Midwest are specifically designed for this type of oil and have no other easy options, this shortage makes the regional supply even tighter. Furthermore, the Trans Mountain pipeline is working at full capacity to meet high demand from Asian markets. These factors have pushed Western Canadian oil inventories to their lowest levels since 2020.

與此同時，西加拿大的供應鏈面臨嚴重問題。亞伯塔省北部的惡劣天氣以及 Cenovus Energy 設施的停電，迫使該公司宣布「不可抗力」，導致油砂產量下降 10%。由於美國中西部的煉油廠是專為此類原油設計且缺乏其他便捷選項，此次短缺使該區域的供應更加緊張。此外，Trans Mountain 管道正全速運作以滿足亞洲市場的高需求。這些因素將西加拿大的石油庫存推至 2020 年以來的最低水平。

Regarding future predictions, Rystad Energy suggests that if the conflict worsens, oil prices could rise to $150 per barrel. While using strategic reserves and changing shipping routes through Saudi Arabia may help in the short term, the chance of a diplomatic solution has decreased. This volatility is clearly seen in Brent crude prices, which recently reached a peak of $94.5 per barrel.

關於未來預測，Rystad Energy 認為若衝突惡化，油價可能升至每桶 150 美元。雖然短期內利用戰略儲備並改變經沙烏地阿拉伯的運輸路線可能有所幫助，但外交解決方案的可能性已降低。這種波動在布倫特原油價格中顯而易見，近期價格最高達每桶 94.5 美元。

Global oil supplies continue to be limited by Middle Eastern conflicts and production failures in Canada, leaving the market at risk of further price increases.

全球石油供應持續受限於中東衝突與加拿大生產故障，使市場面臨價格進一步上漲的風險。