How Middle East Instability is Affecting Eurozone Economic Forecasts

中東局勢不穩如何影響歐元區經濟預測

Jun 12, 2026, 11:56
EuropeFinance

Introduction

Central banks in Germany and the Netherlands have lowered their economic growth predictions because of the negative effects of energy price changes caused by regional conflicts.

德國與荷蘭的央行由於區域衝突導致能源價格變動產生負面影響，已調低其經濟增長預測。

Main Body

The Bundesbank has reduced its 2026 growth forecast for Germany to 0.5%, down from 0.6% in December. This change is due to the conflict in Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which caused energy costs to rise. These price increases are expected to reduce the amount of money households can spend. Furthermore, the Bundesbank emphasized that inflation will likely stay above the European Central Bank's 2% target until 2028, which may lead to higher interest rates in July to keep prices stable.

德國聯邦銀行將德國 2026 年的增長預測從 12 月的 0.6% 下調至 0.5%。此變動是由於伊朗衝突及霍爾木茲海峽封鎖導致能源成本上升。預計這些價格上漲將減少家庭的可支配支出。此外，聯邦銀行強調，通貨膨脹在 2028 年前可能會維持在歐洲央行 2% 的目標之上，這可能導致 7 月份調高利率以維持物價穩定。

At the same time, the German government is spending more on defense and infrastructure to support the economy. The Bundesbank asserted that this spending is the main reason Germany has avoided a total economic decline, contributing 1.3 percentage points to growth by 2028. However, this support is limited by supply problems and a drop in private investment caused by high interest rates and political uncertainty.

與此同時，德國政府正增加國防與基礎建設支出以支持經濟。聯邦銀行 asserted 稱，此類支出是德國避免全面經濟衰退的主因，到 2028 年將為增長貢獻 1.3 個百分點。然而，由於高利率與政治不確定性引起的供應問題及私人投資下降，此支持效果有限。

Similarly, the Dutch central bank (DNB) has lowered its 2026 growth forecast from 1.2% to 0.8%. The DNB explained that this is due to higher production costs for companies and lower consumer spending. While government spending still helps, the DNB warned that slower growth could reduce tax revenues, limiting future government budgets. These trends match a wider regional slowdown, as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also reduced the overall eurozone growth forecast for 2026 to 0.9%.

同樣地，荷蘭央行 (DNB) 將 2026 年的增長預測從 1.2% 下調至 0.8%。DNB 解釋稱，這是由於企業生產成本增加及消費者支出下降所致。雖然政府支出仍有幫助，但 DNB 警告增長放緩可能會減少稅收，進而限制未來的政府預算。這些趨勢與更廣泛的區域性放緩一致，國際貨幣基金組織 (IMF) 同樣將 2026 年歐元區整體增長預測下調至 0.9%。

Conclusion

Economic growth in Europe continues to be limited by energy inflation and political instability, with government spending acting as the main protection against a recession.

歐洲的經濟增長持續受到能源通貨膨脹與政治不穩的限制，政府支出是防止經濟衰退的主要保護措施。

Vocabulary Learning

The 'Cause-and-Effect' Engine

To move from A2 (simple sentences) to B2 (complex ideas), you need to stop using "and" or "because" for everything. Look at how this text connects economic events. It uses Cause-and-Effect Chains.

The A2 Way: "Energy prices went up, so people have less money. The government spends more, so the economy is okay."

The B2 Bridge: Instead of "so," use these sophisticated connectors found in the text:

  1. "Due to..." (Something happened because of a specific reason)

    • Text Example: "This change is due to the conflict in Iran..."
    • Coach's Tip: Use this at the start of a sentence to sound more professional. "Due to the rain, the match was cancelled."

  2. "Contributing to..." (One thing helped create a larger result)

    • Text Example: "...contributing 1.3 percentage points to growth..."
    • Coach's Tip: This is perfect for explaining your success or failure in a job interview. "My hard work contributed to the project's success."

  3. "Limited by..." (Something is stopped or slowed down by a barrier)

    • Text Example: "...this support is limited by supply problems..."
    • Coach's Tip: Use this instead of saying "I can't do it because..." Try: "My progress is limited by my lack of vocabulary."

💡 Linguistic Shift: Strong Verbs for Reports

Notice that the author doesn't just say "The bank said." To reach B2, you need Reporting Verbs. Look at these three choices from the text:

  • Emphasized →\rightarrow Used when the point is very important.
  • Asserted →\rightarrow Used when stating a fact with confidence.
  • Warned →\rightarrow Used when predicting a future problem.

Challenge: Next time you describe a situation, don't use "say." Choose one of these to change the feeling of your sentence.

Vocabulary Learning

forecast (n.)
A prediction about the future, especially regarding economic or weather trends.
Example:The economic forecast suggests that growth will slow down next year.
blockade (n.)
The act of sealing off a place to prevent goods or people from entering or leaving.
Example:The naval blockade prevented the shipment of oil to the neighboring countries.
emphasized (v.)
To give special importance or prominence to something in speaking or writing.
Example:The manager emphasized the need for teamwork to complete the project on time.
asserted (v.)
To state a fact or belief confidently and forcefully.
Example:The lawyer asserted that his client was innocent of all charges.
infrastructure (n.)
The basic physical and organizational structures, such as buildings, roads, and power supplies, needed for the operation of a society.
Example:The government is investing billions in improving the city's aging infrastructure.
uncertainty (n.)
A state of being unsure about something, often causing anxiety or hesitation.
Example:Political uncertainty in the region has led to a decrease in foreign investment.
revenues (n.)
The total amount of income generated by a company or government.
Example:The city is looking for ways to increase tax revenues to fund new schools.
recession (n.)
A period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced.
Example:Many businesses struggled to survive during the global recession of 2008.
Practice B2 words in a crossword→