The Australian housing market is currently seeing a drop in investor activity and lower auction success rates. This situation has been caused by new federal tax reforms and uncertainty regarding future interest rates.

澳洲房屋市場目前出現投資者活動下降以及拍賣成功率降低的現象。這種情況是由新的聯邦稅制改革以及對未來利率的不確定性所引起的。

The main reason for the market slowdown is the government's proposed tax changes, specifically the removal of negative gearing and changes to the capital gains tax. Experts emphasize that these measures could reduce the amount investors can borrow by 10 to 20 percent. Consequently, Westpac reported a 20 percent drop in investor loan applications over three weeks. Because of this, banks like ANZ and NAB have lowered their forecasts, predicting that prices in major cities will fall by about 2 percent in 2026, with larger drops of 6 to 8 percent expected in Sydney and Melbourne.

市場放緩的主要原因是政府提議的稅制變更，特別是取消負扣稅（negative gearing）以及對資本利得稅的調整。專家強調，這些措施可能會使投資者可借貸的金額減少 10% 至 20%。因此，Westpac 報告指出，投資者貸款申請在三週內下降了 20%。因此，如 ANZ 和 NAB 等銀行已下調其預測，預計 2026 年主要城市的價格將下跌約 2%，而悉尼和墨爾本的跌幅預計將更大，達 6% 至 8%。

At the same time, uncertainty about monetary policy continues. Buyers are waiting to see if the Reserve Bank of Australia will change interest rates. While some analysts believe rate cuts are possible, most remain cautious, which has led to a 'buyer's strike' in several areas. For example, sales in capital cities fell from 32,863 in May 2025 to 27,342 in May 2026. However, high-quality properties in expensive areas are still selling for high prices, showing that demand for luxury real estate remains strong.

與此同時，貨幣政策的不確定性依然存在。買家正等待觀察澳洲儲備銀行是否會調整利率。雖然部分分析師認為降息是有可能的，但大多數人仍保持謹慎，導致部分地區出現「買家罷市」。例如，州首府城市的銷售量從 2025 年 5 月的 32,863 宗下降至 2026 年 5 月的 27,342 宗。然而，高價地區的高品質物業仍以高價成交，顯示對豪華房產的需求依然強勁。

Furthermore, the decrease in investors could create a serious problem for the rental market. Economists assert that fewer investment properties may lead to a shortage of rental homes, as not enough renters are becoming first-home buyers to fill the gap. Currently, the market is in a 'recalibration period,' meaning that buyers now have more power to negotiate, provided they have enough cash to buy.

此外，投資者的減少可能會給租賃市場帶來嚴重問題。經濟學家斷言，投資性房產的減少可能會導致租賃房屋短缺，因為轉化為首次置業買家的租客數量不足以填補缺口。目前，市場處於一個「重新校準期」，這意味著只要買家擁有足夠的現金，現在就擁有更大的議價能力。

The Australian property market remains unstable. Prices are expected to stay flat or decline until there is clear information about tax laws and interest rates stabilize.

澳洲房地產市場依然不穩定。在稅制法律有明確消息且利率穩定之前，價格預計將維持平盤或下跌。