A proposed one-time wealth tax on California's billionaires is facing serious political and legal challenges, making it less likely to appear on the 2026 ballot.

一項擬對加州億萬富翁徵收的一次性財富稅正視線嚴重的政治與法律挑戰，這使得該項措施較不可能出現在 2026 年的投票單中。

The initiative, introduced by the SEIU-UHW union, proposes a 5% tax on people with a net worth of over $1 billion. Supporters emphasize that this measure would reduce the negative effects of federal funding cuts in healthcare and education. Although the union claims to have collected 1.5 million signatures—which is far more than the 874,641 required—state officials must still certify these signatures by June 25.

這項由 SEIU-UHW 工會提出的倡議，建議對淨資產超過 10 億美元的人徵收 5% 的稅。支持者強調，此措施將減少聯邦政府削減醫療與教育資金所帶來的負面影響。儘管該工會聲稱已搜集 150 萬個簽名——遠高於要求的 874,641 個——但州政府官員仍須在 6 月 25 日前認證這些簽名。

However, Governor Gavin Newsom is leading the opposition by building a coalition of business groups and various labor unions. The administration argues that this tax could cause 'capital flight,' meaning wealthy individuals might move to other states to avoid the extra cost. This concern is supported by the fact that business leaders like Peter Thiel and Larry Page have already moved their operations. Furthermore, these wealthy individuals have given large sums of money to the California Business Roundtable to stop the measure.

然而，州長 Gavin Newsom 正領導反對陣營，建立一個由商業團體與各類工會組成的聯盟。行政部門認為，這項稅賦可能會導致「資本外逃」，意味著富豪可能會移居至其他州以規避額外成本。這一擔憂得到了事實支持，例如 Peter Thiel 和 Larry Page 等商業領袖已經將其業務遷出。此外，這些富豪已向加州商業圓桌會議（California Business Roundtable）捐贈大筆資金以阻止該措施。

This dispute has also caused a split within the Democratic Party, pitting progressive supporters against moderate members. This tension is particularly important as Governor Newsom considers running for president in 2028. While an initial poll showed 50% of the public supported the tax, more recent votes in San Francisco suggest that public support is decreasing.

這場爭議也導致民主黨內部出現分歧，使進步派支持者與溫和派成員對立。由於州長 Newsom 考慮在 2028 年競選總統，這種緊張局勢顯得尤為重要。雖然初步民調顯示 50% 的民眾支持該稅項，但近期在舊金山的投票結果顯示，公眾支持度正在下降。

Whether the initiative succeeds depends on the June 25 certification deadline and whether supporters can survive the growing political pressure.

該倡議能否成功，取決於 6 月 25 日的認證截止日期，以及支持者能否承受日益增加的政治壓力。