The Australian Bureau of Meteorology and other international agencies have confirmed that an El Niño climate pattern has begun, with forecasts suggesting it will become significantly stronger through 2026.

澳洲氣象局及其他國際機構已確認聖嬰現象已經開始，預測顯示到 2026 年將會變得更加強勁。

This event is caused by unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean and a weakening of the trade winds. About 50% of predictive models suggest that this could be one of the most powerful events since 1950. While the Bureau of Meteorology emphasized that a strong El Niño does not always lead to severe local impacts, past events show a tendency for lower rainfall and higher temperatures. In Australia, this is expected to cause below-average rain in eastern and southern areas, which could increase the risk of bushfires, frost, and coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef.

這次事件是由於太平洋中部和東部海面溫度異常升高以及信風減弱所引起。約 50% 的預測模型顯示，這可能是 1950 年以來最強的事件之一。雖然氣象局強調強烈的聖嬰現象並不總是導致嚴重的局部影響，但過往事件顯示出降雨量減少和溫度升高的趨勢。在澳洲，預計東部和南部地區的雨量將低於平均水準，這可能會增加山火、霜凍以及大堡礁珊瑚白化的風險。

On a global level, the effects are diverse. In the United States, the shift in the jet stream is expected to increase rain in the south while making northern winters milder. However, the Atlantic hurricane season might be less active due to stronger upper-level winds. These changes could seriously affect global food security because Australia is a major exporter of beef, sugar, and wheat. Furthermore, the Dutch Red Cross and the World Meteorological Organization have warned about potential humanitarian crises, including crop failures and water shortages in the Middle East and East Africa.

在全球層面，影響各異。在美國，噴射氣流的轉移預計將增加南部的降雨量，同時使北部的冬季更加溫暖。然而，由於高層風較強，大西洋的颶風季可能會較不活躍。這些變化可能會嚴重影響全球糧食安全，因為澳洲是牛肉、糖和小麥的主要出口國。此外，荷蘭紅十字會和世界氣象組織已就潛在的人道主義危機發出警告，包括中東和東非的作物歉收和水短缺。

Scientists agree that human-caused climate change makes these effects worse. Experts from the Climate Council assert that combining this El Niño event with a global temperature increase of 1.5°C may lead to record-breaking ocean heat and extreme weather. The Climate Council describes this as a 'dangerous double act,' where greenhouse gas emissions increase the natural volatility of the climate system.

科學家一致認為，人為造成的氣候變化加劇了這些影響。氣候委員會的專家主張，將此次聖嬰現象與全球溫度升高 1.5°C 結合，可能會導致打破紀錄的海洋高溫和極端天氣。氣候委員會將其描述為「危險的雙重打擊」，即溫室氣體排放增加了氣候系統的自然波動性。

The El Niño event is now established and is expected to last into 2027, meaning organizations must increase their preparedness for extreme weather volatility.

聖嬰現象目前已經確立，預計將持續到 2027 年，這意味著各組織必須提高對極端天氣波動的準備。