The international system is currently undergoing a major change. The liberal order established after World War II is declining, and it is being replaced by a fragmented landscape defined by competition between great powers and a more practical approach from middle-sized nations.

國際體系目前正經歷一場重大變革。第二次世界大戰後建立的自由主義秩序正在衰落，取而代之的是一個由大國競爭與中型國家採取更務實做法所定義的碎片化格局。

Experts suggest that the decline of the previous global system was caused by several factors. For instance, the United States became overextended by trying to maintain influence in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia simultaneously. Consequently, it is unlikely that the U.S. can return to its previous position of total dominance. This has created a power vacuum, leading to a world where raw power is often more important than international law. Furthermore, leadership styles—such as those seen during the Trump administration—emphasized spheres of influence and direct deals rather than working through international organizations.

專家認為，先前全球體系的衰落是由多個因素造成的。例如，美國試圖同時維持在歐洲、中東與亞洲的影響力，導致其過度擴張。因此，美國不太可能回到先前完全主導的地位。這造成了權力真空，導致世界進入一個實力往往比國際法更重要的狀態。此外，領導風格——例如川普政府時期——強調影響力範圍與直接交易，而非透過國際組織運作。

Different regions are responding to this instability in various ways. While Japan is strengthening its ties with the U.S. to balance the rise of China, Europe is trying to become more independent in its economic and military decisions. Meanwhile, some middle powers, led by Canada, are calling for a more inclusive global system. They advocate for 'transformative realism,' which replaces alliances based on shared values with partnerships based on practical interests. This model aims to include non-Western perspectives, such as those from China and the Islamic world, to protect global resources and stability.

不同地區對這種不穩定採取了不同的應對方式。日本正加強與美國的關係以制衡中國的崛起，而歐洲則試圖在經濟與軍事決策上更加獨立。同時，由加拿大領導的部分中型強權正呼籲建立一個更具包容性的全球體系。他們主張「轉型現實主義」，以基於務實利益的夥伴關係取代基於共同價值觀的聯盟。此模式旨在納入非西方視角（如中國與伊斯蘭世界），以保護全球資源與穩定。

Additionally, the rise of 'swing states' shows how countries are now using transactional diplomacy. India is a clear example of this trend; it has moved away from ideological goals to focus on national interest and economic growth. For example, India maintains a relationship with Russia during the Ukraine conflict while also increasing security cooperation with the U.S. to protect itself from China. This behavior reflects a broader global trend where political power and security have become more important than global trade, leading to the growth of regional alliances instead of universal rules.

此外，「搖擺國家」的崛起顯示出各國目前如何運用交易型外交。印度是這一趨勢的明顯例子；它已從意識形態目標轉向關注國家利益與經濟增長。例如，印度在烏克蘭衝突期間與俄羅斯維持關係，同時增加與美國的安全合作以制衡中國。這種行為反映了一個更廣泛的全球趨勢，即政治權力與安全變得比全球貿易更重要，導致區域聯盟的增長取代了普世規則。

The global community is now moving through a volatile transition from a rules-based system to a multipolar world defined by strategic competition and practical diplomacy.

全球社會目前正處於一個動盪的過渡期，從一個基於規則的體系轉向一個由戰略競爭與務實外交定義的多極世界。