The stability of the Middle East is currently at risk because Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz again and fighting has resumed in southern Lebanon. These events threaten a recently signed agreement, known as a memorandum of understanding (MoU), between the United States and Iran.

中東的穩定目前面臨風險，因為伊朗再次封閉了霍爾木茲海峽，且黎巴嫩南部重新爆發衝突。這些事件威脅到美國與伊朗近期簽署的一份協議，即所謂的諒解備忘錄（MoU）。

The current tension started after US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a 14-point agreement. This deal required both sides to stop fighting and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, the agreement is failing because of ongoing violence in Lebanon. Israeli forces have carried out airstrikes that killed many people, while Hezbollah has responded with rocket attacks. Although the US and Qatar helped organize a ceasefire, both sides claim the other has broken the rules, and Israel continues to keep troops in southern Lebanon to manage security threats.

目前的緊張局勢始於美國總統川普與伊朗總統佩澤什基安簽署的一份 14 點協議。該協議要求雙方停止戰鬥並重新開放霍爾木茲海峽。然而，由於黎巴嫩持續發生暴力事件，該協議正陷入困境。以色列軍隊發動空襲導致多人死亡，而真主黨則以火箭彈攻擊予以回擊。雖然美國與卡達協助協調停火，但雙方均指責對方違反規則，且以色列繼續在黎巴嫩南部部署軍隊以管控安全威脅。

In response, the Iranian military closed the Strait of Hormuz, asserting that Israeli actions violated the US-Iran deal. This is a serious move because about 20% of the world's oil and gas passes through this waterway. While the US military claims that commercial ships can still pass through, President Trump has suggested that the US might charge tolls for using the strait if a final deal is not reached within 60 days. He described these fees as payment for providing security services.

作為回應，伊朗軍方封閉了霍爾木茲海峽，聲稱以色列的行動違反了美伊協議。這是一個嚴重的舉措，因為全球約 20% 的石油與天然氣通過此水道。雖然美國軍方聲稱商業船隻仍可通行，但川普總統暗示，若 60 天內未能達成最終協議，美國可能會對使用該海峽徵收通行費。他將這些費用描述為提供安全服務的報酬。

Meanwhile, there is a disagreement within the Iranian government. Hardline groups believe the agreement is a surrender and want to keep the strait closed. On the other hand, pragmatic leaders, such as Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, emphasize that Iran needs to stabilize its economy and reconnect with global markets. At the same time, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has cautiously supported the deal but has warned that he may oppose any excessive demands from the US.

與此同時，伊朗政府內部存在分歧。強硬派認為該協議等同於投降，要求維持海峽封閉。另一方面，如議長加利巴夫等務實派領導人則強調，伊朗需要穩定經濟並重新接軌全球市場。同時，最高領袖哈梅內雖謹慎支持該協議，但警告若美國提出過分要求，他可能會表示反對。

The security of the region remains unstable. A lasting peace depends on whether the fighting in Lebanon stops and whether both nations can agree on the rules for verifying Iran's nuclear program.

該地區的安全依然不穩定。能否實現持久和平，取決於黎巴嫩的戰鬥是否停止，以及兩國能否就驗證伊朗核計畫的規則達成共識。