The Japanese yen and South Korean won are experiencing significant depreciation against the U.S. dollar, driven by divergent interest rate trajectories and fiscal uncertainties.

受利率走勢分歧與財政不確定性影響，日圓與韓圓對美元正經歷顯著貶值。

The Japanese yen has approached a 40-year nadir, recently trading near 161.59 per dollar. This depreciation is primarily attributed to the substantial interest rate differential between the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). While the BoJ recently increased its policy rate to 1%, this remains significantly below the Federal Reserve's 3.50% to 3.75% range. Market participants, including BofA Global Research and Deutsche Bank, have revised their forecasts to anticipate further U.S. rate hikes this year, with a 75% probability of an increase by September. Consequently, former policymaker Sayuri Shirai posits that the yen could weaken to 165 per dollar if the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish posture.

日圓已接近 40 年來的低點，近期兌美元交易價在 161.59 附近。此次貶值主因在於美國聯準會與日本銀行（BoJ）之間巨大的利差。雖然日本銀行近期將政策利率調升至 1%，但仍顯著低於聯準會 3.50% 至 3.75% 的區間。包括美銀全球研究部（BofA Global Research）與德意志銀行在內的市場參與者已修正預測，預期今年美國將進一步加息，且 9 月前加息的機率為 75%。因此，前政策制定者白井早織認為，若聯準會維持鷹派立場，日圓可能會貶至 165 兌 1 美元。

Institutional responses to this volatility have been multifaceted. The Japanese Ministry of Finance executed interventions totaling 11.7 trillion yen between late April and early May. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama recently engaged in consultations with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, resulting in a mutual agreement to implement 'resolute measures' as required. However, the efficacy of such interventions is contested; Secretary Bessent has indicated a preference for BoJ rate hikes over Treasury security sales to avoid impacting U.S. yields. Furthermore, the administration of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi faces a policy dilemma, balancing the need for currency stability against the risk that higher borrowing costs may impede economic growth. Fiscal concerns are exacerbated by proposed consumption tax reductions without identified funding sources, potentially driving 10-year Japanese government bond yields toward 3%.

機構對此波動採取了多方面的應對措施。日本財務省在 4 月底至 5 月初之間，執行了總計 11.7 兆日圓的干預措施。財務大臣片山錯月近期與美國財政部長 Scott Bessent 進行磋商，雙方達成共識，將在必要時採取「果斷措施」。然而，此類干預的成效仍有爭議；Bessent 部長表示，比起出售國庫券，他更傾向於日本銀行加息，以避免影響美國的殖利率。此外，高市早苗首相的政府面臨政策兩難，必須在貨幣穩定需求與高借貸成本可能阻礙經濟增長的風險之間取得平衡。由於擬議削減消費稅卻未明確資金來源，加劇了財政憂慮，可能將 10 年期日本國債殖利率推向 3%。

Parallel currency pressures are evident in South Korea. Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol characterized the won's valuation—approximately 1,500 per dollar—as excessive relative to national fundamentals. The administration attributes this weakness to portfolio rebalancing by foreign investors, who have liquidated an estimated 140 trillion won in local equities. While the U.S. dollar index remains robust near 101.01, other currencies such as the euro and British pound have exhibited relative stability or marginal decline following statements from the European Central Bank and political transitions in the United Kingdom.

韓國亦出現了類似的貨幣壓力。財政部長具允澈將韓圓的估值（約 1,500 兌 1 美元）描述為相對於國家基本面過於低迷。政府將此弱勢歸因於外國投資者的投資組合再平衡，估計已套現 140 兆韓圓的本地股票。雖然美元指數維持在 101.01 附近的強勢水平，但隨著歐洲央行發表聲明以及英國政治過渡，歐元與英鎊等其他貨幣表現相對穩定或僅輕微下跌。

Global markets remain characterized by U.S. dollar strength as central banks navigate conflicting mandates of inflation control and economic growth.

全球市場仍以美元強勢為特徵，各國央行正於控制通貨膨脹與維持經濟增長這兩個衝突的指令中尋找平衡。