U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has asserted that the domestic economy possesses the capacity to achieve a 3% growth rate within the current calendar year.

美國財政部長 Scott Bessent 主張，國內經濟在今年之內有能力實現 3% 的增長率。

The Secretary's projections are predicated upon the perceived resilience of underlying economic activity and the anticipated conclusion of hostilities involving Iran. According to Secretary Bessent, the economy exhibited a growth trajectory of approximately 4% in February, prior to the commencement of military actions by the United States and Israel. This optimism is further linked to the appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chairman, whom the administration believes will effectively manage the dual mandate of inflation control and economic expansion.

部長的預測是基於其認為潛在經濟活動具有韌性，以及預計涉及伊朗的敵對行動將結束。根據 Bessent 部長的說法，在美國與以色列採取軍事行動之前，經濟在二月份呈現約 4% 的增長軌跡。這種樂觀態度進一步與任命 Kevin Warsh 為聯準會主席有關，政府相信他將能有效管理控制通貨膨脹與經濟擴張的雙重使命。

These assertions occur amidst a complex macroeconomic environment characterized by a deceleration in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which expanded by 1.6% in the first quarter following a 0.5% increase in the final quarter of 2025. The overall growth for 2025 was recorded at 2.1%. Concurrently, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a seasonally adjusted consumer price index increase of 0.5% from April to May, resulting in an annual inflation rate of 4.2%. This inflationary pressure, combined with a moderating labor market and the implementation of tariffs, has contributed to the recent growth deceleration.

這些主張發生在一個複雜的宏觀經濟環境中，其特徵是國內生產總值（GDP）增速放緩：在 2025 年第四季增長 0.5% 之後，第一季增長了 1.6%。2025 年的整體增長率記錄為 2.1%。同時，勞工統計局報告指出，經季節性調整後，消費者物價指數從四月到五月上升了 0.5%，導致年通膨率為 4.2%。這種通膨壓力，加上勞動力市場放緩及關稅的實施，導致近期增長減速。

Central to the Treasury's strategy is the '3-3-3' plan, which stipulates a 3% GDP growth rate, a reduction of the budget deficit to 3% of GDP by 2028, and an increase in domestic oil production by 3 million barrels per day. While the federal budget deficit for the first eight months of fiscal year 2026 decreased by 9% to $1.25 trillion, high financing costs remain a primary fiscal burden. The deficit-to-GDP ratio concluded 2025 at 5.8%, following two years of exceeding 6%.

財政部策略的核心是「3-3-3」計劃，規定 GDP 增長率為 3%，在 2028 年前將預算赤字減少至 GDP 的 3%，以及每日增加 300 萬桶國內石油產量。雖然 2026 財政年度前八個月的聯邦預算赤字下降 9% 至 1.25 兆美元，但高昂的融資成本仍是主要的財政負擔。赤字與 GDP 比例在連續兩年超過 6% 後，於 2025 年底為 5.8%。

There exists a notable divergence between official projections and market sentiment. Data from the prediction platform Kalshi indicates a low probability (14.2%) of GDP growth falling between 2.6% and 3.0%, with a higher likelihood of growth between 2.1% and 2.5%. Similarly, market participants assign only a 13% probability that the deficit-to-GDP ratio will drop below 5% for the 2026 fiscal year.

官方預測與市場情緒之間存在顯著分歧。預測平台 Kalshi 的數據顯示，GDP 增長落在 2.6% 至 3.0% 之間的機率較低（14.2%），而落在 2.1% 至 2.5% 之間的可能性較高。同樣地，市場參與者認為 2026 財政年度的赤字與 GDP 比例將降至 5% 以下的機率僅有 13%。

While the Treasury Secretary maintains that the '3-3-3' objectives are attainable, market indicators and recent inflationary data suggest a more conservative economic outlook.

雖然財政部長堅持認為「3-3-3」目標是可以實現的，但市場指標與近期通膨數據顯示，經濟展望將更為保守。