U.S. small-cap equities have experienced significant growth in the first half of the year, primarily driven by the expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure.

美國小盤股在今年上半年經歷了顯著增長，主要由人工智慧基礎設施的擴張所驅動。

The Russell 2000 Index has recorded a valuation increase exceeding 21%, representing its most robust semi-annual performance since 1991. This appreciation is attributed to a convergence of fundamental improvements and a narrowing valuation gap relative to large-cap equities. Specifically, the proliferation of AI infrastructure has catalyzed revenue growth for a secondary tier of suppliers, particularly within the semiconductor and semiconductor-equipment sectors. This 'trickle-down' effect is evidenced by the fact that 16 of the index's 50 highest-performing assets are chip-related entities, some of which have seen gains exceeding 400%.

羅素 2000 指數錄得超過 21% 的估值增長，為 1991 年以來最強勁的半年表現。此次升值歸因於基本面的改善以及與大盤股之間估值差距的縮小。具體而言，AI 基礎設施的普及催化了第二梯隊供應商的營收增長，尤其是在半導體與半導體設備領域。這種「滲透效應」體現在該指數表現最佳的 50 個資產中，有 16 個為晶片相關實體，其中部分資產的漲幅超過 400%。

Beyond technological catalysts, the asset class is supported by increased exposure to the domestic economy, anticipated mergers and acquisitions in the biotechnology and pharmaceutical sectors, and capital investment tax incentives. Consequently, 2026 earnings growth projections for Russell 2000 constituents have been revised upward from 23% to 38%.

除了技術催化因素外，該類資產還受到對國內經濟曝險增加、預期生物技術與製藥領域將有併購活動，以及資本投資稅收優惠的支持。因此，羅素 2000 指數成分股 2026 年的獲利增長預期已從 23% 上調至 38%。

However, the sustainability of this trajectory is contingent upon the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Small-cap firms exhibit heightened vulnerability to interest rate fluctuations due to a prevalence of floating-rate debt and imminent refinancing requirements. Bank of America estimates that a 25-basis-point increase in rates would result in a 2% reduction in operating earnings. This risk is compounded by assertions from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who posits that the high demand for AI infrastructure is contributing to inflationary pressures. Hammack suggests that if such demand persists without economic restraint, further rate hikes may be requisite to achieve inflation targets, contrasting with the view held by Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh that AI-driven productivity gains will eventually be disinflationary.

然而，此趨勢的可持續性取決於聯準會的貨幣政策。由於普遍存在浮動利率債務及緊迫的再融資需求，小盤股對利率波動展現出更高的脆弱性。美國銀行估計，利率每上升 25 個基點，將導致營運獲利減少 2%。克利夫蘭聯準銀行總裁 Beth Hammack 的主張加劇了此風險，她認為對 AI 基礎設施的高需求正導致通貨膨脹壓力。Hammack 建議，若此類需求在缺乏經濟約束的情況下持續，可能需要進一步加息以實現通膨目標，這與聯準會主席 Kevin Warsh 的觀點相反，後者認為 AI 驅動的生產力提升最終將具有去通膨效果。

Small-cap stocks are currently benefiting from an AI-led expansion, though their continued ascent remains precarious pending the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rates.

小盤股目前正受益於 AI 導向的擴張，但其能否持續攀升仍取決於聯準會對利率的決定，情況依然不穩定。