The establishment of an interim peace agreement between the United States and Iran has facilitated the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a reduction in crude oil and domestic gasoline prices.

美國與伊朗達成臨時和平協議，促進了霍爾木茲海峽的重新開放，導致原油與國內汽油價格下降。

The preceding conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran precipitated a significant escalation in energy costs; US gasoline prices ascended from approximately $2.98 to $4.56 per gallon by May, while crude oil benchmarks rose from $70 to $126 per barrel. This inflationary pressure was exacerbated by the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies. Following the June provisional agreement, maritime traffic has increased substantially, with daily transits rising from a conflict-period average of one to two vessels to eight by July 1. Consequently, Brent crude has declined to approximately $72 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate has fallen to $68.83.

先前涉及美國、以色列與伊朗的衝突導致能源成本大幅攀升；截至五月，美國汽油價格從約每加侖 2.98 美元升至 4.56 美元，而原油基準價則從每桶 70 美元升至 126 美元。由於霍爾木茲海峽——這條承載全球 20% 石油與液化天然氣供應的通道——遭到中斷，使得通貨膨脹壓力加劇。隨著六月的臨時協議達成，海上交通顯著增加，每日過境船隻從衝突期間平均一至兩艘增加到七月一日的八艘。因此，布倫特原油已下跌至每桶約 72 美元，西德克薩斯中質原油則降至 68.83 美元。

Despite the decline in crude benchmarks, a comprehensive return to pre-conflict retail gasoline pricing is deemed improbable in the immediate term. This discrepancy is attributed to several structural constraints. First, gasoline inventories reached their lowest seasonal levels since 2014 as of June 19, necessitating a rebuilding phase that sustains demand and pricing. Second, the absence of a strategic gasoline reserve in the US limits the administration's capacity for direct market intervention. Third, European imports to the US East Coast reached a six-year low in late June. Furthermore, the 'rockets and feathers' phenomenon, as characterized by Professor Ana María Herrera, suggests that retail price reductions occur more gradually than increases to preserve profit margins.

儘管原油基準價下跌，但短期內被認為不可能全面恢復到衝突前的零售汽油價格。此差異歸因於幾項結構性限制。首先，截至六月十九日，汽油庫存達到 2014 年以來最低的季節性水平，因此需要進入補庫階段，這維持了需求與價格。其次，美國缺乏戰略汽油儲備，限制了政府直接干預市場的能力。第三，六月下旬美國東海岸從歐洲進口的量達到六年低點。此外，正如 Ana María Herrera 教授所描述的「火箭與羽毛」現象，零售價格下降的速度比上升緩慢，以維持利潤空間。

Institutional stability remains precarious. While Citigroup analysts project Brent could descend to $60 per barrel by year-end, this forecast is contingent upon the durability of the 60-day ceasefire. Recent hostilities, including an Iranian drone strike on a Panama-flagged tanker and reciprocal military strikes, indicate a fragile security environment. Should diplomatic efforts fail or blockades be reinstated, analysts suggest a potential resurgence of Brent prices above $100 per barrel. Additionally, the market has been influenced by an unexpected reduction in Chinese crude imports, which have decreased by 5 million barrels per day compared to the previous year.

體制穩定性依然不穩定。雖然花旗銀行分析師預測布倫特原油在年底前可能降至每桶 60 美元，但此預測取決於 60 日停火協議的持久性。近期的敵對行動，包括伊朗對一艘掛巴拿馬國旗油輪的無人機攻擊以及相互的軍事打擊，顯示安全環境脆弱。若外交努力失敗或恢復封鎖，分析師建議布倫特原油價格可能會再次回升至每桶 100 美元以上。此外，市場還受到中國原油進口量意外減少的影響，較去年每日減少 500 萬桶。

While crude oil prices have stabilized following the resumption of shipping, retail gasoline prices are expected to decline slowly, with a full recovery to pre-war levels potentially deferred until late 2026.

雖然航運恢復後原油價格已趨於穩定，但零售汽油價格預計將緩慢下降，全面恢復到戰前水平可能要推遲至 2026 年底。