International Airlines Group (IAG) has issued a profit warning following a substantial increase in projected fuel expenditures attributed to the conflict in Iran.

由於伊朗衝突導致預計燃油支出大幅增加，國際航空集團 (IAG) 已發布獲利預警。

The fiscal impact is manifested in a revised fuel expenditure forecast of nine billion euros, representing an increase of approximately two billion euros over initial estimates. This escalation correlates with the volatility of crude oil prices, which peaked at $126 per barrel. To mitigate these externalities, IAG has hedged 70% of its anticipated fuel requirements and intends to recover approximately 60% of the additional costs through strategic adjustments in yields, capacity, and pricing.

財政影響體現在修正後的燃油支出預測為 90 億歐元，較最初估計增加約 20 億歐元。此增長與原油價格的波動相關，價格一度攀升至每桶 126 美元。為了緩解這些外部影響，IAG 已對 70% 的預計燃油需求進行對沖，並計畫透過調整收益、運能和定價策略，回收約 60% 的額外成本。

Institutional positioning remains robust despite these headwinds. IAG reported a first-quarter pre-tax profit of 422 million euros, a 76.6% increase over the preceding year, driven by sustained demand across diverse markets, albeit with a noted deceleration in the eastern Mediterranean. The organization has further optimized its operational footprint by redeploying capacity from the Gulf region—which constituted 3% of its total capacity at the onset of hostilities on February 28—toward high-demand destinations such as India, Nairobi, Singapore, and Bangkok.

儘管面臨這些逆風，機構定位依然穩健。IAG 報告第一季度稅前利潤為 4.22 億歐元，較前一年增長 76.6%，主因是各個市場的需求持續強勁，儘管東地中海地區有所減速。該組織進一步優化其營運佈局，將運能從海灣地區（在 2 月 28 日衝突爆發時佔總運能的 3%）重新部署至印度、奈洛比、新加坡和曼谷等高需求目的地。

Regarding supply chain integrity, Chief Executive Luis Gallego asserted that the organization's investment in hub-based fuel reserves and the availability of record supplies from the United States preclude an anticipated interruption of service during the summer period. However, systemic risks persist; Goldman Sachs analysts have identified the United Kingdom as particularly vulnerable due to high import dependency and diminished refining capacity, suggesting a hypothetical scenario wherein fuel stocks could reach critical thresholds necessitating rationing. This systemic instability is further evidenced by Cirium data, which indicates the cancellation of 13,005 flights globally between April 10 and April 21.

關於供應鏈完整性，執行長 Luis Gallego 堅稱，公司對樞紐燃油儲備的投資以及來自美國的紀錄級供應，可避免夏季期間預期的服務中斷。然而，系統性風險依然存在；高盛分析師指出，英國由於高度依賴進口且煉油能力下降，顯得尤為脆弱，並提出一種假設情境，即燃油庫存可能達到臨界門檻而需要配額供應。Cirium 的數據進一步證明了這種系統不穩定性，顯示 4 月 10 日至 21 日期間全球取消了 13,005 個航班。

While IAG faces reduced annual profits due to fuel price inflation, the company continues to leverage its premium market position and balance sheet to maintain operational stability.

雖然 IAG 因燃油價格通貨膨脹而面臨年獲利下降，但公司將繼續利用其高端市場定位與資產負債表以維持營運穩定。