Researchers have identified an unprecedented increase in global wildfire activity during the initial trimester of 2026, attributing the trend to a synergy of climatic instability and the anticipated emergence of an El Niño event.

研究人員發現 2026 年第一季度全球山火活動呈現前所未有的增長，並將此趨勢歸因於氣候不穩定與預期聖嬰現象出現的協同作用。

Quantitative data provided by World Weather Attribution (WWA) indicates that approximately 150 million hectares have been incinerated between January and April 2026, representing a 20% increase over previous records. Regional analysis reveals that Africa has been disproportionately affected, with 85 million hectares burned. This escalation is attributed to 'hydroclimate whiplash,' a process wherein anomalous seasonal precipitation facilitated biomass accumulation, which subsequently served as fuel during subsequent periods of extreme thermal stress and drought. Similarly, Asian territories—specifically India, China, and Southeast Asia—have experienced burn areas nearly 40% above historical records.

根據世界天氣歸因（WWA）提供的量化數據，2026 年 1 月至 4 月間約有 1.5 億公頃土地被燒毀，較先前紀錄增加 20%。區域分析顯示，非洲受影響最為嚴重，共有 8,500 萬公頃被燒毀。此惡化現象歸因於「水文氣候反轉」（hydroclimate whiplash），即異常的季節性降雨促使生物量累積，隨後在極端高溫與乾旱期間成為燃料。同樣地，亞洲地區——特別是印度、中國與東南亞——的燒毀面積比歷史紀錄高出近 40%。

Stakeholder analysis emphasizes the compounding nature of these events. While El Niño is a cyclical meteorological phenomenon characterized by elevated sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific, its current manifestation occurs atop a baseline of systemic global warming. The World Meteorological Organization and WWA scientists posit that human-induced climate change now frequently supersedes natural signals, as evidenced by record temperatures in Australia despite the presence of La Niña. There is a 61% probability that an El Niño event will persist from May through the end of the year, potentially exacerbating drought and fire risks in North America, Australia, and the Amazon basin.

利害關係人分析強調了這些事件的複合性質。雖然聖嬰現象是一種週期性氣象現象，其特徵為中赤道太平洋海面溫度升高，但目前的表現是建立在系統性全球暖化的基底之上。世界氣象組織與 WWA 科學家認為，人為引起的氣候變遷目前經常掩蓋自然訊號，澳洲在拉尼娜現象存在的情況下仍創下紀錄高溫即為證明。聖嬰現象有 61% 的機率將從 5 月持續至年底，可能加劇北美、澳洲及亞馬遜盆地的乾旱與火災風險。

From a public health perspective, the implications are severe. The Sunway Center for Planetary Health has noted that fine particulate matter (PM2.5) from wildfires possesses a toxicity level significantly higher than urban traffic emissions. This is corroborated by research in The Lancet, which linked 1.5 million annual deaths to air pollution, suggesting a projected increase in mortality as wildfire frequency intensifies. Despite the availability of renewable energy and storage technologies, observers note a perceived retreat by various governments from their established climate commitments.

從公共衛生角度來看，影響十分嚴重。雙威行星健康中心指出，山火產生的細懸浮微粒（PM2.5）毒性顯著高於都市交通排放。這點也得到了《刺胳肢》雜誌研究的證實，該研究將每年 150 萬人死亡與空氣污染聯繫起來，顯示隨著山火頻率增加，死亡率預計將會上升。儘管目前已擁有再生能源與儲能技術，觀察者仍注意到各國政府似乎在退縮，未履行既有的氣候承諾。

The global community faces a high probability of extreme fire activity and thermal anomalies throughout 2026, driven by the intersection of a strong El Niño and persistent anthropogenic warming.

在強聖嬰現象與持續人為暖化的共同影響下，全球在 2026 年全年面臨極端山火活動與高溫異常的機率極高。