Recent scientific assessments indicate a fundamental transition in the Antarctic sea-ice system and a significant increase in precipitation levels within the Southern Ocean.

近期的科學評估顯示，南極海冰系統正經歷一場根本性的轉變，且南極海的降水水平顯著增加。

The stability of Antarctic sea ice, which had exhibited anomalous growth since 2007, ceased in 2015, marking the commencement of a systemic regime shift. Research conducted by the University of New South Wales and the Alfred-Wegener-Institut suggests that an intensification of westerly winds—driven by a widening temperature gradient between the tropics and the poles—facilitated the ascent of warm, saline circumpolar deep water. This process was accelerated in 2015 by storm systems that disrupted the surface freshwater lens, leading to the basal melting of sea ice, particularly in East Antarctica. Subsequent feedback loops, including reduced albedo and increased thermal absorption, have consolidated this state, culminating in record-low ice extensions by 2023. In West Antarctica, the process was further compounded by the advection of subtropical moist air, which increased cloud cover and trapped terrestrial radiation.

南極海冰自2007年起表現出異常增長，但這種穩定狀態在2015年終止，標誌著系統性狀態轉移的開始。新南威爾斯大學與阿爾弗雷德-韋格納研究所的研究表明，由於熱帶與極地之間的溫度梯度擴大，導致西風強化，促使溫暖且高鹽分的環極深層水上升。這一過程在2015年因風暴系統擾亂表面淡水層而加速，導致海冰基底融化，尤其是在東南極。隨後的反饋循環（包括反照率降低和熱吸收增加）鞏固了這一狀態，導致2023年的冰層擴展量降至歷史最低。在西南極，由於亞熱帶濕潤空氣的平流，增加了雲量並捕捉陸地輻射，使情況進一步複雜化。

Parallel observations at Macquarie Island indicate a 28% increase in annual precipitation since 1979, a finding that contradicts the lower estimates provided by ERA5 reanalysis models. This intensification is attributed not to a higher frequency of storm events, but to an increase in the precipitation volume per event. The resulting influx of freshwater—estimated at 2,300 gigatonnes annually across high latitudes—may enhance ocean stratification and alter the transport of nutrients and carbon. Furthermore, the increased evaporation required to sustain this precipitation suggests a mechanism by which the Southern Ocean may be dissipating heat more rapidly, a process described as a form of atmospheric cooling.

同時，麥奎里島的平行觀察顯示，自1979年以來年降水量增加了28%，這一發現與ERA5再分析模型提供的較低估計相矛盾。這種強化並非歸因於風暴事件頻率的增加，而是由於每次事件的降水量增加。由此導致的淡水湧入（估計高緯度地區每年達2,300吉噸）可能會增強海洋分層，並改變營養物質與碳的輸送。此外，維持這種降水所需的蒸發量增加，表明南極海可能正透過某種機制更快速地散發熱量，這一過程被描述為一種大氣冷卻。

The Southern Ocean is currently undergoing rapid transformations in ice distribution and hydrological cycles, the long-term equilibrium of which remains undetermined.

南極海目前的冰層分佈與水文循環正經歷快速轉變，其長期平衡狀態仍未確定。