Global oil markets are experiencing significant volatility and inventory depletion due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the ongoing conflict involving Iran.

由於霍爾木茲海峽關閉以及涉及伊朗的持續衝突，全球石油市場正經歷劇烈波動與庫存枯竭。

The current market equilibrium is characterized by a perceived stability that masks acute systemic stress. According to analysts from Societe Generale, the depletion of global inventories is accelerating, with only a marginal fraction of remaining stocks being operationally accessible. This precarious state is exacerbated by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has removed approximately 15 to 18 million barrels per day from global circulation. Should a rapprochement between the United States and Iran facilitate the reopening of the strait by early June, a minimum 52-day lag in supply chain reactivation—encompassing tanker transit and refining—would persist. Conversely, a delayed reopening could precipitate a price escalation toward $150 per barrel, with full inventory normalization potentially deferred until December 2027.

目前的市場平衡呈現出一種表象的穩定，掩蓋了劇烈的系統性壓力。根據法國興業銀行的分析師指出，全球庫存枯竭正在加速，僅有極小部分的剩餘庫存在操作上可供使用。這種危險狀態因霍爾木茲海峽的關閉而加劇，導致全球流通量每日減少約 1,500 萬至 1,800 萬桶。若美國與伊朗關係改善並促使海峽在 6 月初前重新開放，供應鏈的恢復（包括油輪運輸與精煉）仍將存在至少 52 天的滯後期。相反地，若重新開放時間推遲，可能會導致價格飆升至每桶 150 美元，而庫存的完全正常化可能會推遲至 2027 年 12 月。

In the United States, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has undergone one of its most substantial weekly declines on record. While Patrick De Haan of GasBuddy asserts that this drawdown is attributable to previously authorized transfers rather than an immediate crisis, the reduction in reserves diminishes the federal capacity to mitigate future exogenous shocks. Concurrently, domestic fuel prices have risen, with the national average for regular gasoline reaching $4.515 per gallon, driven by seasonal demand and geopolitical instability.

在美國，戰略石油儲備 (SPR) 經歷了紀錄以來最顯著的單週下降之一。儘管 GasBuddy 的 Patrick De Haan 主張此次下降歸因於先前授權的轉移而非即時危機，但儲備的減少削弱了聯邦政府緩解未來外部衝擊的能力。與此同時，國內燃料價格上漲，受季節性需求與地緣政治不穩定驅動，普通汽油的全國平均價格達到每加侖 4.515 美元。

European institutional responses indicate a high probability of a 'stagflationary shock.' Valdis Dombrovskis, European Commissioner for Economy and Productivity, has indicated that the EU's forthcoming spring report will reflect downward adjustments in growth forecasts and upward revisions in inflation. This economic outlook is mirrored by the German administration; Vice Chancellor Lars Klingbeil has characterized the conflict as a severe threat to global economic development, advocating for increased European resilience and independence regarding energy supply chains. These concerns form the primary agenda for the G7 finance ministers' meeting in Paris, where the focus remains on the economic repercussions of the Middle East conflict on global trade.

歐洲機構的反應表明，發生「滯脹衝擊」的可能性很高。歐盟經濟與生產力專員 Valdis Dombrovskis 指出，歐盟即將發布的春季報告將反映下調的增長預測與上調的通貨膨脹率。德國政府也持有相同看法；副總理 Lars Klingbeil 將此次衝突定調為對全球經濟發展的嚴重威脅，主張歐洲應在能源供應鏈方面提高韌性與獨立性。這些憂慮構成了巴黎 G7 財政部長會議的主要議程，重點在於中東衝突對全球貿易產生的經濟影響。

The global energy sector remains vulnerable to severe physical shortages and prolonged economic stagnation as diplomatic resolutions remain elusive.

由於外交解決方案仍未達成，全球能源部門在面臨嚴重實物短缺與長期經濟停滯方面依然脆弱。