The Australian housing sector is currently experiencing a downturn characterized by declining demand and reduced auction clearance rates across major capital cities.

澳洲房屋市場目前正經歷低迷期，其特徵為需求下降以及各大主要城市的拍賣成交率降低。

The current market instability is attributed to a confluence of macroeconomic pressures and legislative shifts. The Reserve Bank of Australia's implementation of three consecutive interest rate hikes has materially diminished borrowing capacity, with projections suggesting a potential 10% reduction in buying budgets for average earners should further increases occur by August 2026. This monetary tightening has been compounded by the 2026-27 federal budget, which introduced modifications to negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions. These fiscal adjustments are estimated to reduce investor borrowing capacity by 10% to 20%, effectively increasing the required yield for investors by 1 to 1.5 percentage points.

目前的市場不穩定歸因於宏觀經濟壓力與立法變動的共同影響。澳洲儲備銀行連續三次調高利率，已實質削弱了借貸能力；預計若在 2026 年 8 月前進一步加息，平均收入者的買房預算可能會減少 10%。這種貨幣緊縮情況與 2026-27 年聯邦預算法案相疊加，該法案對負扣稅（negative gearing）與資本利得稅優惠進行了修改。據估計，這些財政調整將使投資者的借貸能力減少 10% 至 20%，有效將投資者要求的殖利率提高 1 至 1.5 個百分點。

Empirical evidence of this downturn is manifest in the widening bid-ask spread at residential auctions. Preliminary clearance rates have softened significantly, with Sydney recording 53% and Melbourne 59%. In Brisbane, the downturn was more pronounced, with a preliminary clearance rate of 22% in south-east Queensland. Data from Ray White indicates a substantial decline in market participation, as evidenced by open home attendance averaging 2.1 persons per property, compared to 3.5 during the preceding year. While some high-value, turnkey properties continue to attract owner-occupiers, investor activity has become increasingly selective, focusing primarily on positively geared assets.

這次低迷的實證體現在住宅拍賣中日益擴大的買賣價差。初步成交率顯著下滑，悉尼為 53%，墨爾本為 59%。在布里斯本，低迷情況更為顯著，昆士蘭東南部的初步成交率僅為 22%。Ray White 的數據顯示市場參與度大幅下降，每間物業的開放日平均參觀人數為 2.1 人，而前一年為 3.5 人。雖然部分高價值、即買即住的物業仍能吸引自住買家，但投資者的行為變得愈發挑剔，主要聚焦於正現金流（positively geared）資產。

Stakeholder projections vary regarding the magnitude of the correction. Louis Christopher of SQM Research forecasts price declines of 9% in Sydney and 7% in Melbourne for 2026, while Morgan Stanley suggests a potential 10% correction, citing it as the most significant in four decades. Conversely, Commonwealth Bank and Westpac maintain forecasts of marginal growth, although the former acknowledges significant downside risks. Additional volatility may be introduced by the labor market; the Bureau of Statistics reported a rise in youth unemployment to 11.1% in April, which Westpac identifies as a leading indicator of broader economic instability.

持分者對於修正幅度的預測不一。SQM Research 的 Louis Christopher 預測 2026 年悉尼與墨爾本的價格將下跌 9% 及 7%；而摩根士丹利則指出可能出現 10% 的修正，並稱其為 40 年來最嚴重的一次。相反地，聯邦銀行與西太平洋銀行維持微幅成長的預測，儘管前者承認存在顯著的下行風險。勞動力市場可能會引入額外波動；統計局報告 4 月青年失業率上升至 11.1%，西太平洋銀行將其視為整體經濟不穩定的領先指標。

The Australian property market remains in a state of correction, driven by high interest rates and restrictive tax policies, with a projected period of sustained soft demand.

澳洲房地產市場仍處於修正狀態，由高利率與限制性稅務政策驅動，預計將進入一段需求持續低迷的時期。