The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has initiated legal proceedings against the state of Rhode Island to establish federal primacy over the regulation of prediction markets.

商品期貨交易委員會 (CFTC) 已對羅德島州提起法律程序，以確立聯邦政府在監管預測市場方面的主導權。

The current legal impasse originated from reciprocal litigation between the state of Rhode Island and the platform Kalshi. Rhode Island Attorney General Peter Neronha asserts that entities such as Kalshi and Polymarket function as unlicensed sports betting operations, thereby circumventing state gaming statutes. Conversely, Kalshi contends that its event-based contracts constitute tradeable assets within a federally regulated exchange, placing them outside the purview of state gambling laws. This dispute is situated within a broader systemic conflict, as the CFTC has filed similar suits against six other states—including Arizona, Illinois, and Connecticut—all of which are led by Democratic attorneys general. The CFTC maintains that event contracts are derivatives and swaps, falling exclusively under federal jurisdiction. Chairman Michael Selig posits that state-level enforcement would impede the agency's mandate to foster innovation and could render these financial products unavailable within specific jurisdictions.

目前的法律僵局源於羅德島州與 Kalshi 平台之間的互訴。羅德島州總檢察長 Peter Neronha 主張，如 Kalshi 和 Polymarket 等實體是以無照體育博彩營運，從而規避州博彩法令。相反地，Kalshi 認為其基於事件的合約屬於聯邦監管交易所內的可交易資產，因此不在州博彩法的管轄範圍之內。此爭議處於一個更廣泛的系統性衝突之中，因為 CFTC 已對其他六個州（包括亞利桑那州、伊利諾州和康乃狄格州）提起類似訴訟，而這些州的總檢察長均由民主黨人領導。CFTC 主張事件合約屬於衍生品和掉期交易，完全屬於聯邦管轄權。主席 Michael Selig 認為，州級執法將妨礙該機構促進創新的使命，並可能導致這些金融產品在特定管轄區內無法獲得。

From a fiscal perspective, the American Gaming Association reports a projected loss of over $1 billion in state and tribal tax revenue, attributing this deficit to the proliferation of prediction markets. Bill Miller, CEO of the association, characterizes these platforms as 'backdoor sports betting' and argues that the CFTC is facilitating the operation of national sportsbooks with insufficient oversight. This institutional tension is further complicated by executive branch involvement; President Donald Trump has publicly advocated for the maintenance of the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction. Parallel to these jurisdictional battles, the CFTC has sought to vacate a $5 million penalty previously imposed on Gemini Trust Company. The agency and Gemini jointly allege that the prior administration employed 'inappropriate tactics' and relied on non-credible testimony to secure the settlement. This request follows significant political contributions from the Winklevoss brothers to the current administration and the subsequent appointment of Michael Selig as CFTC Chair.

從財政角度來看，美國博彩協會報告預計州和部落稅收將損失超過 10 億美元，並將此虧損歸因於預測市場的激增。該協會執行長 Bill Miller 將這些平台定義為「後門體育博彩」，並認為 CFTC 在監督不足的情況下，便利了全國性博彩公司的運作。由於行政部門的介入，這種制度緊張局勢進一步複雜化；川普總統已公開主張維持 CFTC 的獨家管轄權。在這些管轄權之爭的同時，CFTC 尋求撤銷先前對 Gemini Trust Company 處以的 500 萬美元罰款。該機構與 Gemini 共同指稱前任政府採用了「不恰當的手段」，並依賴不可信的證詞來達成和解。此次請求發生在 Winklevoss 兄弟向現任政府提供鉅額政治捐款，以及隨後 Michael Selig 被任命為 CFTC 主席之後。

The resolution of these competing claims of authority remains pending in the courts, with significant implications for state tax revenues and federal regulatory boundaries.

這些權力爭議的解決方案目前仍在法院待審，將對州稅收和聯邦監管界限產生重大影響。