Recent statistical data indicate a deceleration of consumer price inflation in Germany alongside an acceleration of inflationary pressures and labor market shifts in Italy, both influenced by geopolitical volatility in the Middle East.

近期統計數據顯示，德國的消費物價通貨膨脹有所放緩，而義大利的通膨壓力與勞動力市場轉變則在加速，兩者均受到中東地緣政治波動的影響。

The German inflationary trajectory exhibited a reduction to 2.6% in May, descending from the 2.9% recorded in April. This moderation is attributed to a decline in crude oil valuations and the implementation of a federal fuel tax reduction of approximately 17 cents per liter, effective from May 1 to June 30. Despite this, energy costs remained elevated, with household energy and fuel prices increasing by 6.6% year-on-year. The conflict involving Iran has precipitated significant volatility, evidenced by a 31% surge in energy import prices in April and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which restricts approximately 20% of global petroleum and liquid gas transit. Consequently, the Sachverständigenrat projects an annual inflation rate between 3.0% and 3.5%, while economic growth forecasts for 2026 have been revised downward to 0.5% due to diminished private consumption.

德國的通膨走勢在 5 月下降至 2.6%，低於 4 月記錄的 2.9%。此緩解歸因於原油價格下跌以及聯邦政府自 5 月 1 日至 6 月 30 日實施的每公升約 17 歐分的燃料減稅。儘管如此，能源成本依然高企，家庭能源與燃料價格年增 6.6%。涉及伊朗的衝突導致了劇烈波動，體現為 4 月能源進口價格飆升 31% 以及霍爾木茲海峽的封鎖，該海峽限制了全球約 20% 的石油與液化天然氣運輸。因此，Sachverständigenrat 預計年度通膨率將介於 3.0% 至 3.5% 之間，而由於私人消費減少，2026 年的經濟增長預測已下調至 0.5%。

In contrast, Italy experienced an acceleration of consumer price inflation to 3.2% in May, the highest level since September 2023. This trend was primarily driven by regulated energy products, which saw a 12.6% increase. Core inflation, excluding unprocessed food and energy, rose to 1.8%. Parallel to these price increases, the Italian labor market demonstrated a historic contraction in unemployment, which fell to a record low of 5.1% in April. The youth unemployment rate similarly reached a series low of 16.9%. Notwithstanding these employment gains, the Meloni administration has marginally reduced its annual growth target to 0.6%, citing the deleterious effects of surging energy costs and geopolitical instability.

相比之下，義大利 5 月的消費物價通膨加速至 3.2%，為 2023 年 9 月以來最高水平。此趨勢主要由受監管的能源產品驅動，漲幅達 12.6%。扣除未加工食品與能源的核心通膨升至 1.8%。與價格上漲平行的是，義大利勞動力市場的失業率出現歷史性萎縮，4 月降至 5.1% 的紀錄低點。青年失業率同樣達到系列低點 16.9%。儘管就業增長，梅洛尼政府仍將年度增長目標略微下調至 0.6%，理由是能源成本飆升與地緣政治不穩定造成的負面影響。

While Germany is experiencing a temporary mitigation of inflation through fiscal intervention and oil price fluctuations, Italy faces rising price levels coupled with an unprecedented strengthening of its employment metrics.

雖然德國透過財政干預與油價波動暫時緩解了通膨，但義大利正面對價格上升，同時伴隨就業指標前所未有地走強。