The European Commission has initiated a strategic review of its economic relationship with China following a period of intensifying trade imbalances and systemic dependencies.

在貿易失衡與系統性依賴日益嚴重後，歐盟委員會已開始對其與中國的經濟關係進行策略性檢討。

The current geopolitical friction is rooted in a perceived lack of sustainability regarding the EU-China trade equilibrium. This is evidenced by a record trade deficit of €359.9 billion recorded last year. The European Commission has characterized China as a 'systemic rival,' a designation that has coincided with the implementation of rigorous foreign direct investment screening and measures to counteract state-subsidized 'dumping.' The automotive and energy-intensive sectors have been particularly impacted, with 200,000 jobs lost since 2024 and projections suggesting a further 600,000 losses in car manufacturing over the current decade.

目前的地緣政治摩擦根源於歐盟認為歐中貿易平衡缺乏永續性。去年記錄到 3,599 億歐元的紀錄貿易逆差便證明了這一點。歐盟委員會將中國定性為「系統性對手」，此稱號的確立與實施嚴格的外國直接投資審查以及對抗國家補貼「傾銷」的措施同步進行。汽車與高能耗產業受影響尤深，自 2024 年以來已損失 20 萬個工作崗位，預計本十年內汽車製造業將再損失 60 萬個崗位。

Institutional responses have manifested in a series of legislative instruments designed to mitigate strategic vulnerabilities. The Industrial Accelerator Act and the revamped Cybersecurity Act seek to restrict the influence of Chinese entities in critical infrastructure and high-tech sectors. Furthermore, the EU has implemented tariffs on battery electric vehicles and doubled duties on steel imports exceeding established quotas. These measures are complemented by a broader 'de-risking' strategy, which aims to reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains without pursuing a total economic decoupling.

機構的回應體現於一系列旨在減輕策略脆弱性的立法工具。《工業加速法案》與修訂後的《網絡安全法》旨在限制中國實體在關鍵基礎設施與高科技領域的影響力。此外，歐盟對純電動車徵收關稅，並對超過既定配額的鋼鐵進口徵收雙倍關稅。這些措施由更廣泛的「去風險」策略補充，目標是在不追求全面經濟脫鉤的情況下，減少對中國供應鏈的依賴。

Central to this vulnerability is the EU's absolute dependence on China for heavy rare earth elements, which are indispensable for green technology and defense systems. Analysis suggests that Beijing is executing a long-term industrial strategy to transition from an exporter of raw oxides to a provider of high-value finished goods, such as electric vehicles and robotics. This shift is compounded by the depletion of China's own heavy rare earth reserves and a reliance on imports from Myanmar. Consequently, the EU faces a structural risk where critical inputs may be weaponized or simply unavailable as China prioritizes internal industrial stability.

此脆弱性的核心在於歐盟對中國重稀土元素的絕對依賴，這些元素對於綠色科技與國防系統不可或缺。分析指出，北京正在執行長期工業策略，旨在從原材料氧化物出口商轉型為高價值製成品（如電動車與機器人）的供應商。中國自身重稀土儲量的枯竭以及對緬甸進口的依賴，加劇了這一轉型。因此，當中國優先考慮內部工業穩定時，歐盟面臨結構性風險，即關鍵投入品可能會被武器化或直接無法供應。

Internal cohesion within the EU remains fragmented. While France, Italy, and Spain have historically supported more agile safeguard measures, Germany has maintained a cooperative posture to preserve market access for its industrial exports. However, the economic repercussions of this dependence may necessitate a shift in Berlin's policy. This internal divergence is further complicated by the influence of U.S. strategic shifts, including efforts by the Trump administration to establish domestic mine-to-manufacturer supply chains, which serves as a catalyst for European acceleration of similar initiatives.

歐盟內部的凝聚力依然破碎。雖然法國、義大利與西班牙在歷史上支持更靈活的保障措施，但德國為了維持其工業出口的市場准入，一直保持合作姿態。然而，這種依賴所帶來的經濟影響可能迫使柏林調整政策。美國策略轉向的影響使這種內部分歧更加複雜，包括川普政府致力於建立國內「從礦山到製造商」的供應鏈，這成為歐洲加速推動類似倡議的催化劑。

The European Union is currently attempting to balance the necessity of economic security with the risk of triggering a comprehensive trade war through its pursuit of a systemic rebalancing of relations with China.

歐盟目前正嘗試在經濟安全的必要性，以及追求對中國關係系統性重新平衡而可能觸發全面貿易戰的風險之間取得平衡。