The United States labor market is currently characterized by a rise in long-term unemployment and a transition toward a low-hiring environment, despite marginal gains in overall job creation.

儘管整體就業人數略有增加，但目前美國勞動力市場的特徵是長期失業人數上升，且正向低招聘環境轉型。

Quantitative data indicates a significant escalation in long-term unemployment, defined as joblessness persisting for 27 weeks or more. The average number of individuals in this category has exceeded 1.8 million this year, representing a 45% increase relative to 2019 and a 55% increase compared to 2023. This demographic now constitutes approximately 25% of the total unemployed population. The persistence of this trend is attributed to a 'low-hire, low-fire' market dynamic, wherein hiring rates have declined from pandemic-era peaks, leading to a state of labor market stagnation. This is further evidenced by the fact that quit rates have reached their lowest levels since August 2020, suggesting a trend of 'job-hugging' among currently employed personnel.

定量數據顯示長期失業情況顯著惡化，定義為失業 27 週或以上。今年此類人員的平均人數已超過 180 萬，較 2019 年增加 45%，較 2023 年增加 55%。該群體目前約佔總失業人口的 25%。此趨勢的持續歸因於「低招聘、低解僱」的市場動態，招聘率從疫情時期的峰值下降，導致勞動力市場陷入停滯。此外，離職率已降至 2020 年 8 月以來的最低水平，表明目前就業人員呈現出「死守工作」的趨勢。

The socioeconomic implications of protracted unemployment are substantial. Research from the Boston Federal Reserve suggests a long-term wage penalty of approximately 32% for those experiencing long-term unemployment, compared to a 9% reduction for short-term unemployed individuals. Furthermore, the Urban Institute and Pew Research have identified correlations between long-term joblessness and increased incidences of clinical depression, higher community crime rates, and adverse educational outcomes for children. Individual case studies highlight the exhaustion of unemployment benefits—typically capped at 26 weeks—forcing a reliance on Medicaid and the liquidation of retirement assets.

長期失業對社會經濟的影響相當巨大。波士頓聯儲銀行的研究指出，長期失業者的長期薪資損失約為 32%，而短期失業者則為 9%。此外，Urban Institute 和 Pew Research 發現長期失業與臨床抑鬱症發病率增加、社區犯罪率上升以及對兒童教育產生不利影響之間存在相關性。個別案例研究強調，失業救濟金（通常上限為 26 週）耗盡後，迫使失業者依賴 Medicaid 並變現退休資產。

Recent macroeconomic indicators present a contradictory landscape. While April saw an addition of 115,000 jobs, exceeding expectations, subsequent data shows a rise in first-time unemployment claims to 225,000. Projections for May are markedly conservative, with Dow Jones estimates suggesting 80,000 new roles, while Goldman Sachs and Vanguard forecast even lower gains of 60,000 and 20,000, respectively. This deceleration is partially attributed to the normalization of seasonal weather patterns. Additionally, Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported 97,006 planned reductions in May, the highest for that month since 2020, with a notable surge in terminations linked to artificial intelligence integration.

近期的宏觀經濟指標呈現出矛盾的局面。儘管 4 月增加了 11.5 萬個職位，超出預期，但隨後數據顯示首次申請失業救濟人數上升至 22.5 萬。對 5 月的預測顯然保守，道瓊斯估計僅有 8 萬個新職位，而高盛和 Vanguard 的預測更低，分別為 6 萬和 2 萬個。這種減速部分歸因於季節性天氣模式的正常化。此外，Challenger, Gray & Christmas 報告 5 月計劃裁員 97,006 人，為 2020 年以來該月份的最高值，其中與人工智慧整合相關的裁員明顯激增。

The U.S. labor market remains in a state of precarious equilibrium, with a steady unemployment rate of 4.3% masking a growing cohort of long-term unemployed individuals and a decelerating hiring trend.

美國勞動力市場仍處於一種不穩定的平衡狀態，4.3% 的穩定失業率掩蓋了長期失業人數增加與招聘趨勢減速的事實。