A Reuters survey of 160 economists has produced predictions for the upcoming World Cup, identifying France as the most likely champion and Brazil as the most probable high-profile failure.

路透社對 160 位經濟學家進行的一項調查對即將到來的世界盃做出了預測，認為法國是最可能的冠軍，而巴西則最有可能成為令人失望的強隊。

The survey, conducted between May 11 and June 5, indicates a preference for France, which secured 35% of the vote, followed by Spain at 31%. Should this outcome materialize, Didier Deschamps would achieve a historical precedent as the first manager since 1938 to secure two World Cup titles, and the sole individual to do so having previously won as a player. Other top contenders include Argentina, Portugal, and England. The perceived strength of the French squad is attributed to the maturation of players from the 2022 final and the integration of Paris St Germain personnel, alongside the anticipated availability of Kylian Mbappe. Mbappe is further projected to secure both the Golden Ball and Golden Boot, narrowly surpassing Harry Kane in these categories. Both athletes are positioned to challenge Miroslav Klose's record of 16 goals.

這項於 5 月 11 日至 6 月 5 日間進行的調查顯示，法國最受青睞，獲得 35% 的投票率，西班牙則以 31% 位居第二。若此結果成真，Didier Deschamps 將創下歷史先例，成為 1938 年以來首位贏得兩次世界盃冠軍的總教練，且是唯一一名在球員時期贏得冠軍後再次執教奪冠的人。其他頂尖競爭者包括阿根廷、葡萄牙與英格蘭。法國隊被視為強勢，主因在於 2022 年決賽球員的成熟、巴黎聖日耳曼人員的整合，以及 Kylian Mbappe 預計能出賽。Mbappe 進一步被預測將同時獲得金球獎與金靴獎，僅以微弱差距領先 Harry Kane。兩位運動員皆有望挑戰 Miroslav Klose 16 個進球的紀錄。

Methodologically, the respondents exhibited a reliance on intuition, with 73% citing 'gut feeling' and only 20% utilizing quantitative models. Despite the appointment of Carlo Ancelotti, nearly one-third of participants identified Brazil as the most likely powerhouse to underperform, with England and Germany also noted. Conversely, Norway is identified by 21% of respondents as the underdog most likely to achieve a surprising result. Regarding individual breakouts, Lamine Yamal of Spain emerged as the primary candidate.

在方法論上，受訪者表現出對直覺的依賴，73% 稱之為「直覺」，僅有 20% 使用量化模型。儘管任命了 Carlo Ancelotti，但近三分之一的參與者認為巴西是最有可能表現不如預期的強權，英格蘭與德國也被提及。相反地，21% 的受訪者將挪威視為最有可能取得驚人結果的黑馬。關於個人突破，西班牙的 Lamine Yamal 成為首要候選人。

Beyond athletic performance, the tournament's expansion to 48 teams across the United States, Canada, and Mexico presents significant logistical challenges. Concerns have been raised regarding the financial burden on spectators, specifically concerning the costs of transit, lodging, and ticketing. This economic dimension mirrors the professional preoccupations of the respondents, over 60% of whom asserted that forecasting 2026 inflation remains a more predictable exercise than determining the tournament winner.

除運動表現外，世界盃擴展至 48 支隊伍並由美國、加拿大與墨西哥共同舉辦，帶來了巨大的物流挑戰。人們對觀眾的財務負擔表示擔憂，特別是關於交通、住宿與票務成本。這一經濟維度反映了受訪者的專業關注，超過 60% 的人表示，預測 2026 年的通貨膨脹比確定世界盃冠軍更為可預測。

The consensus among surveyed economists favors a French victory, while highlighting significant logistical and financial concerns regarding the North American hosting arrangement.

受訪經濟學家的共識傾向於法國獲勝，同時強調了北美舉辦安排在物流與財務方面的重大疑慮。