Recent data from multiple research institutes indicate a significant increase in state-based conflicts and lethal violence globally during 2025, coinciding with a perceived decline in the adherence to international law.

來自多個研究機構的最新數據顯示，2025年全球國家間衝突與致命暴力顯著增加，與此同時，對國際法的遵守程度被認為有所下降。

Quantitative assessments provided by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) and the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) establish that 2025 witnessed 65 active conflicts involving at least one state, the highest frequency since 1946. Interstate conflicts specifically doubled from the previous year to eight, including engagements between Russia and Ukraine, Iran and Israel, and various border disputes in Asia. Total conflict-related fatalities reached approximately 245,000, marking the third-deadliest year since the Cold War's conclusion. A critical escalation in one-sided violence against civilians was observed, particularly in Sudan, where massacres in El Fasher contributed to a surge in non-combatant deaths.

根據烏普薩拉衝突數據計畫 (UCDP) 與奧斯陸和平研究中心 (PRIO) 提供的定量評估，2025年共發生65場涉及至少一個國家的衝突，為1946年以來最高頻率。國家間衝突較前一年翻倍增至8場，包括俄羅斯與烏克蘭、伊朗與以色列之間的交戰，以及亞洲多場邊境爭端。衝突相關死亡人數總計約245,000人，為冷戰結束以來第三慘烈的年份。針對平民的單方面暴力嚴重升級，尤其是在蘇丹，法舍爾 (El Fasher) 的大屠殺導致非戰鬥人員死亡人數激增。

Parallel to these statistics, the 2026 Peace Report from four German research institutes posits a resurgence of 'warlord' dynamics. The researchers characterize this phenomenon as the utilization of military force by political leaders—specifically citing Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump, and Benjamin Netanyahu—as a standardized instrument of political strategy to advance strategic interests and curtail the sovereignty of other nations. This pattern is further attributed to several Gulf monarchies, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, regarding their involvement in various civil wars.

與這些數據平行，四個德國研究機構發布的 2026年和平報告認為，「軍閥」動態正再度興起。研究人員將此現象描述為政治領袖——特別點名普丁、川普與納坦雅胡——將軍事武力視為政治策略的標準工具，用以推進戰略利益並削弱其他國家的主權。這種模式進一步被歸因於包括沙烏地阿拉伯、卡達與阿拉伯聯合大公國在內的多個海灣君主國，涉及其參與的各場內戰。

Institutional implications are evident in the perceived degradation of the liberal world order and the efficacy of the United Nations. The German institutes argue that the federal government's failure to secure a seat on the UN Security Council reflects a loss of international trust, attributed to a perceived reluctance to defend international law. This is exemplified by Chancellor Friedrich Merz's refusal to definitively classify US interventions in Venezuela and Iran as breaches of international legal standards. Consequently, the researchers advocate for a shift toward cooperative policies focusing on human rights and the establishment of robust arms control mechanisms to mitigate current crisis dynamics.

制度上的影響體現於自由主義世界秩序以及聯合國效能被視為惡化。德國研究機構認為，聯邦政府未能取得聯合國安理會席位反映了國際信任的喪失，其原因在於被視為不願捍衛國際法。總理 Friedrich Merz 拒絕明確將美國在委內瑞拉與伊朗的干預行動定義為違反國際法標準，即為例證。因此，研究人員倡議將政策轉向聚焦於人權的合作，並建立強而有力的軍備控制機制，以緩解目前的危機動態。

The global security landscape is currently characterized by record-high interstate tensions and a systemic shift toward the normalization of political violence.

目前全球安全局勢的特點在於國家間緊張局勢處於歷史高位，且政治暴力正趨向常態化。