Central banks in Germany and the Netherlands have revised their economic growth forecasts downward, citing the adverse effects of conflict-driven energy price volatility.

德國與荷蘭的央行下調了經濟增長預測，理由是衝突導致能源價格波動，造成了負面影響。

The Bundesbank has adjusted its 2026 growth projection for the German economy to 0.5%, representing a marginal decrease from the 0.6% estimate established in December. This downward revision is attributed to the conflict in Iran and the subsequent blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has precipitated a surge in energy costs. Such inflationary pressures are expected to diminish household purchasing power and constrain consumption expenditure. Furthermore, the Bundesbank anticipates that core inflation will remain above the European Central Bank's 2% target through 2028, potentially necessitating additional interest rate hikes in July to mitigate price instability.

德國聯邦銀行將 2026 年德國經濟的增長預測調整為 0.5%，較 12 月預測的 0.6% 略有下降。此次下調歸因於伊朗衝突及隨後對霍爾木茲海峽的封鎖，導致能源成本飆升。此類通膨壓力預計將削弱家庭購買力並限制消費支出。此外，德國聯邦銀行預計核心通膨在 2028 年前將維持在歐洲央行 2% 的目標之上，因此 7 月可能需要進一步調高利率以緩解價格不穩定。

Conversely, the German state is implementing an expansionary fiscal strategy, focusing on defense and infrastructure investments. The Bundesbank posits that this fiscal intervention is the primary mechanism preventing a contraction of the gross domestic product in the current half-year, estimating a cumulative growth contribution of 1.3 percentage points by 2028. However, the efficacy of this stimulus is tempered by supply bottlenecks and a decline in private investment resulting from heightened interest rates and geopolitical uncertainty.

相反地，德國政府正實施擴張性財政策略，重點在於國防與基礎建設投資。德國聯邦銀行認為，此項財政干預是防止當前半年內國內生產總值（GDP）萎縮的主要機制，預計到 2028 年累計增長貢獻將達 1.3 個百分點。然而，由於供應瓶頸以及高利率與地緣政治不確定性導致的私人投資下降，此刺激措施的成效受到限制。

Parallel developments are evident in the Netherlands, where De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) has reduced its 2026 growth forecast from 1.2% to 0.8%. The DNB attributes this decline to elevated production costs for enterprises and reduced consumer spending. While government expenditure continues to provide support, the DNB has cautioned that diminished economic performance may erode state revenues, thereby constraining future fiscal capacity. These national trends align with a broader regional deceleration, as evidenced by the International Monetary Fund's reduction of the overall eurozone growth forecast for 2026 to 0.9%.

荷蘭也出現了平行發展，荷蘭銀行（DNB）將 2026 年的增長預測從 1.2% 下調至 0.8%。DNB 將此次下降歸因於企業生產成本升高與消費者支出減少。雖然政府支出持續提供支持，但 DNB 警告，經濟表現不佳可能會侵蝕國家財政收入，進而限制未來的財政能力。這些國家趨勢與更廣泛的區域性減速一致，國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）亦將 2026 年歐元區整體增長預測下調至 0.9%。

European economic growth remains constrained by energy-driven inflation and geopolitical volatility, with state spending serving as the primary buffer against recession.

歐洲經濟增長仍受能源推動的通膨與地緣政治波動限制，政府支出是防止衰退的主要緩衝。