Ten years after the 2016 referendum, the United Kingdom's exit from the European Union continues to influence national economic performance, migration patterns, and the stability of the domestic political landscape.

在2016年公投十年後，英國退出歐盟仍持續影響國家經濟表現、移民模式以及國內政治局勢的穩定性。

The economic consequences of the withdrawal are characterized by a cumulative contraction in trade, investment, and productivity. Academic estimates suggest the UK economy is between 4% and 8% smaller than it would have been under continued membership, with specific impacts including a £3.3bn revenue loss for Scotland in the previous year. While proponents of the exit argued that short-term volatility was a prerequisite for regaining policy autonomy, the anticipated revitalization of trade—particularly with the United States—has not materialized. Instead, non-tariff barriers and administrative complexities persist in relations with the EU, the UK's primary trading partner.

退出歐盟的經濟後果表現為貿易、投資與生產力的累計萎縮。學術估計顯示，英國經濟比維持會員身分時縮小了 4% 至 8%，具體影響包括蘇格蘭在去年損失了 33 億英鎊的收入。儘管退出支持者主張短期波動是恢復政策自主權的必要前提，但預期的貿易振興——特別是與美國的貿易——並未實現。相反地，與其主要貿易夥伴歐盟之間的非關稅壁壘與行政複雜性依然存在。

Migration dynamics have undergone a significant shift; while EU-origin migration has decreased, non-EU arrivals increased to address labor shortages in critical sectors, such as geriatric care. Despite a recent reduction in net migration from over 900,000 in 2023 to 171,000, political volatility remains centered on irregular channel crossings. This has manifested in civil unrest and the rise of Reform UK, a party currently leading several opinion polls and challenging the traditional dominance of the Conservative and Labour parties.

移民動態發生了顯著轉變；雖然來自歐盟的移民減少，但非歐盟入境人數增加，以解決老人照護等關鍵部門的勞動力短缺。儘管近期淨移民人數從 2023 年的 90 萬人以上降至 17 萬 1 千人，但政治動盪仍集中於非法越海入境問題。這已演變為社會不安，並促使 Reform UK 崛起，該黨目前在多項民調中領先，挑戰著保守黨與工黨的傳統主導地位。

In Scotland, the Brexit process catalyzed a resurgence in independence sentiment. Former political leaders note that the divergence between the Scottish electorate's preference for remaining and the UK's eventual exit created a perceived crisis of fairness. Although support for independence fluctuated—dipping during the 2017 general election before surging to 59% in 2020—it has remained a central, albeit contested, pillar of the Scottish National Party's platform. Current data indicates a fragmented electorate, with the SNP's vote share reaching its lowest point since 2007.

在蘇格蘭，脫歐過程催化了獨立情緒的復甦。前政治領袖指出，蘇格蘭選民偏好留歐與英國最終退出之間的分歧，創造了一種對公平性的危機感。雖然對獨立的支持度有所波動——在 2017 年大選期間下降，隨後在 2020 年飆升至 59%——但它仍是蘇格蘭國民黨政綱中一個核心且具爭議的支柱。目前數據顯示選民分歧嚴重，蘇格蘭國民黨的得票率達到 2007 年以來最低點。

International sentiment suggests a potential for rapprochement. Data from the European Council on Foreign Relations indicates that 66% of EU citizens would support the UK's re-entry, with leaders in France, Spain, and Finland expressing openness to this possibility. Within the UK, a majority of respondents now favor closer integration, including the restoration of freedom of movement, as a means to mitigate economic decline. However, the current Labour administration maintains a restrictive policy, ruling out a return to the single market while pursuing a diplomatic 'reset' to ease trade frictions.

國際氛圍顯示有和解潛力。歐洲外交關係委員會的數據指出，66% 的歐盟公民會支持英國重新加入，法國、西班牙與芬蘭的領導人對此可能性表示開放。在英國國內，多數受訪者現在傾向更緊密的整合，包括恢復遷徙自由，以減緩經濟衰退。然而，目前的工黨政府維持限制性政策，排除回到單一市場的可能性，同時追求外交上的「重啟」以緩解貿易摩擦。

The United Kingdom currently faces a period of institutional instability and economic stagnation, with a growing public consensus favoring a closer relationship with the European Union despite official government constraints.

英國目前面臨一個制度不穩定與經濟停滯的時期，儘管政府官方有所限制，但公眾共識日益傾向與歐盟建立更緊密的關係。