Kevin Warsh is the new leader of the Federal Reserve. He is changing how the bank works.

Kevin Warsh 是聯準會的新領導者。他正在改變銀行的運作方式。

Mr. Warsh wants the bank to have less money in its accounts. He thinks this will stop prices from rising too fast. He also wants the bank to stop telling the public about its future plans. He believes this helps the bank make better choices.

Warsh 先生希望銀行帳戶中持有較少資金。他認為這將能阻止價格上漲過快。他還希望銀行停止向公眾透露其未來計劃。他相信這有助於銀行做出更好的選擇。

Mr. Warsh is changing how the bank looks at price data. He is interested in how AI changes the economy. Some people in the bank do not agree with him. They must talk and decide together.

Warsh 先生正在改變銀行分析價格數據的方式。他對 AI 如何改變經濟很感興趣。銀行內部有些人並不認同他的看法，他們必須共同討論並決定。

Big banks are worried about these changes. They think the bank will raise interest rates. Because of this, the price of gold is going down.

大型銀行對這些變革感到擔憂。他們認為銀行將會調高利率。因此，金價正在下跌。

The Federal Reserve is now smaller and tells the public less information.

聯準會現在規模縮小了，且向公眾提供的資訊減少了。

The Federal Reserve has started a complete review of how it operates after Kevin Warsh was appointed as the new Chair.

在 Kevin Warsh 被任命為新任主席後，聯準會已開始全面審查其運作方式。

After taking over, Chairman Warsh created several groups to examine how the institution communicates, manages its balance sheet, and collects data. One of his main goals is to reduce the size of the central bank's balance sheet, which grew very large after the 2008 financial crisis and the pandemic. Warsh emphasized that a smaller balance sheet would help lower inflation and encourage economic growth by reducing government borrowing and making investors less dependent on bailouts.

Warsh 主席接任後，成立了數個小組以審查該機構如何溝通、管理資產負債表以及收集數據。他的主要目標之一是縮減中央銀行的資產負債表規模，該規模在 2008 年金融危機和疫情後大幅增長。Warsh 強調，縮小資產負債表將有助於減少政府借貸並降低投資者對紓困的依賴，從而降低通貨膨脹並鼓勵經濟成長。

Regarding communication, the Chair has indicated a move away from the high levels of transparency used since 2008. He asserted that too much transparency might limit the Fed's flexibility and confuse market signals. Consequently, a recent policy statement was very short and did not include future projections. However, these changes depend on the agreement of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the seven governors, as the Fed usually remains independent from political pressure.

關於溝通，主席表示將擺脫 2008 年以來採用的高度透明化做法。他主張過高的透明度可能會限制聯準會的靈活性並混淆市場訊號。因此，近期的一份政策聲明內容十分簡短，且未包含未來預測。然而，這些變更取決於聯邦公開市場委員會 (FOMC) 與七位理事的同意，因為聯準會通常保持獨立於政治壓力之外。

Furthermore, Warsh prefers using 'trimmed mean' metrics to measure inflation, although some experts worry this method ignores important costs like AI and energy. While he previously believed that AI would lower prices by increasing productivity, he has recently been more cautious about when this will happen. Because of this 'hawkish' approach, major banks like Goldman Sachs and UBS have lowered their gold price forecasts, as they now expect more interest rate hikes to maintain price stability.

此外，Warsh 傾向使用「修剪平均值」指標來衡量通貨膨脹，儘管部分專家擔心此方法會忽略 AI 和能源等重要成本。雖然他此前認為 AI 會透過提高生產力來降低價格，但近期對此發生的時間點變得較為謹慎。由於這種「鷹派」作法，高盛和瑞銀等大銀行已下調金價預測，因為他們目前預期將有更多次升息以維持物價穩定。

The Federal Reserve is currently moving toward a strategy of less transparency and a smaller balance sheet while dealing with ongoing inflation.

聯準會目前在處理持續通貨膨脹的同時，正走向一個透明度較低且資產負債表較小的策略。

The Federal Reserve has commenced a systemic review of its operational frameworks following the appointment of Kevin Warsh as Chair.

在凱文·沃什被任命為主席後，聯準會已開始對其運作框架進行系統性審查。

Upon assuming leadership, Chairman Warsh initiated several taskforces to evaluate the institution's communication protocols, balance sheet management, and data acquisition methodologies. A primary objective involves the reduction of the central bank's balance sheet, which expanded significantly following the 2008 financial crisis and the subsequent pandemic. Warsh posits that a diminished balance sheet would mitigate inflationary pressures and stimulate economic growth by reducing the perceived certainty of investor bailouts and curbing excessive government borrowing.

沃什主席在就任領導後，立即成立了數個工作小組，以評估該機構的溝通協定、資產負債表管理及數據獲取方法。一個主要目標是縮減中央銀行的資產負債表，該表在2008年金融危機及隨後的疫情後大幅擴張。沃什主張，縮減資產負債表將能減輕通貨膨脹壓力，並透過降低投資者對獲救助的預期以及抑制過度的政府借貸來刺激經濟增長。

Regarding communication, the Chair has signaled a departure from the transparency and forward guidance models adopted post-2008. He contends that such transparency may inadvertently constrain the Fed's flexibility and distort market signals. This shift was evidenced by a recent policy statement characterized by its brevity and absence of future projections. However, the implementation of this agenda remains contingent upon the consensus of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the seven governors, particularly as the institution maintains a tradition of independence despite executive pressure.

在溝通方面，主席表示將脫離2008年後採用的透明度與前瞻性指引模式。他認為，此類透明度可能會在無意中限制聯準會的靈活性並扭曲市場訊號。近期一份以簡短且缺乏未來預測為特徵的政策聲明便證明了這一轉向。然而，該議程的實施仍取決於聯邦公開市場委員會 (FOMC) 及七位理事的共識，特別是該機構儘管面臨行政壓力，仍維持著獨立的傳統。

Furthermore, the Chair's approach to inflation data suggests a preference for 'trimmed mean' metrics. This methodology is being scrutinized for its potential to exclude critical inflationary inputs, such as AI-related capital expenditures in semiconductors and energy. While Warsh has previously hypothesized that artificial intelligence would exert a deflationary influence via productivity gains, recent rhetoric has been more circumspect regarding the timeline of these effects.

此外，主席對通膨數據的處理方式顯示其偏好「修剪平均值」指標。此方法正受到審視，因為它可能剔除關鍵的通膨投入，例如半導體與能源中與 AI 相關的資本支出。雖然沃什此前假設人工智慧將透過生產力提升產生通貨緊縮影響，但近期言論對於這些效應的時間表則較為審慎。

Market participants have responded to this perceived hawkish shift with significant volatility. Financial institutions, including Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and UBS, have revised their gold price forecasts downward, citing an increased probability of interest rate hikes. These adjustments reflect a transition in market expectations from 'inflationary cuts' to a tighter monetary regime, driven by persistent inflation and the Chair's repeated emphasis on price stability.

市場參與者對此被視為鷹派的轉向反應劇烈，導致顯著波動。包括美國銀行、高盛及瑞銀在內的金融機構，均因利率上升機率增加而下修金價預測。這些調整反映了市場預期正從「通膨式降息」轉向更緊縮的貨幣體制，而這主要是由持續的通膨以及主席反覆強調價格穩定所驅動。

The Federal Reserve is currently navigating a transition toward reduced transparency and a smaller balance sheet amidst persistent inflationary pressures.

在持續的通膨壓力下，聯準會目前正導向減少透明度與縮減資產負債表的轉型過程。