House prices in Australia are changing. Some cities are different from others.

澳洲的房價正在變動，不同城市的狀況有所差異。

The government says house prices are going down. This happens after prices were very high for a long time. Some people say high interest rates and world problems make buyers stop buying houses.

政府表示房價正在下跌。這是在房價長時間維持高位之後發生的。有些人認為高利率和全球問題導致買家停止買房。

In Sydney and Melbourne, house prices will go down. But in Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide, prices will stay high. More people are moving to these smaller cities and there are not enough houses.

在悉尼和墨爾本，房價將會下跌。但在布里斯本、珀斯和阿德萊德，房價將維持高位。更多的人搬到這些較小的城市，且房屋供應不足。

Food and services still cost a lot of money. The bank might make interest rates higher. This makes it hard for people to borrow money to buy a home.

食物和服務的成本依然很高。銀行可能會調高利率，這使得人們難以借錢買房。

Big cities have lower house prices. Small cities are still strong.

大城市房價較低，小城市依然強勁。

The Australian housing market is currently experiencing a period of price changes. This situation is marked by different results across various regions and is influenced by new federal tax policies and financial limits.

澳洲房屋市場目前正經歷一個價格變動期。此情況在不同地區呈現不同結果，並受到新聯邦稅務政策與財務限制的影響。

Housing Minister Clare O'Neil has described the current drop in property values as a normal cycle following a period of very high growth. This trend is clear because national auction clearance rates have fallen below 50 per cent. While the government says that changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax—intended to help first-home buyers—have contributed to this shift, Minister O'Neil emphasized that these reforms are not the main cause. In contrast, market analysts assert that a combination of factors, including three interest rate increases by the Reserve Bank and global instability involving Iran, has reduced buyer demand.

房屋部長 Clare O'Neil 將目前的房產價值下跌描述為在高成長期後的一個正常週期。這一趨勢十分明顯，因為全國拍賣成交率已跌至 50% 以下。雖然政府表示，旨在幫助首購者的負扣稅（negative gearing）與資本利得稅調整促成了此轉變，但 O'Neil 部長強調這些改革並非主因。相反，市場分析師主張是由多種因素綜合影響，包括澳洲儲備銀行三次調高利率以及涉及伊朗的全球局勢不穩，導致買家需求下降。

There are significant differences between regions. Forecasts from Domain and NAB predict that prices in Sydney and Melbourne could fall by 7 per cent and 8 per cent respectively. However, mid-sized cities like Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide are expected to keep growing due to population increases and a lack of available homes. Data from Cotality shows a split in profits; although 96 per cent of homes sold in March made a profit because they were owned for a long time, losses were mostly found in city apartments where a sudden increase in supply has lowered prices.

不同地區之間存在顯著差異。Domain 與 NAB 的預測顯示，悉尼與墨爾本的房價可能會分別下跌 7% 與 8%。然而，由於人口增加及房屋供應短缺，布里斯本、珀斯與阿德萊德等中型城市預計將持續增長。Cotality 的數據顯示利潤分化嚴重；儘管 3 月份出售的房屋中有 96% 獲利（主因是持有時間較長），但虧損多見於城市公寓，主因是供應量突然增加導致價格下跌。

At the same time, the general economy remains unstable. Although overall inflation dropped to 4 per cent in May—mostly because fuel costs decreased—underlying inflation rose to 3.6 per cent. This suggests that prices for food and services are still rising. Consequently, financial markets expect further interest rate increases, which would make it harder for people to borrow money and could push property values down even further.

與此同時，整體經濟依然不穩。儘管 5 月份整體通貨膨脹率降至 4% —— 主要是燃料成本降低 —— 但基礎通膨率卻上升至 3.6%。這顯示食品與服務的價格仍在上漲。因此，金融市場預期利率將進一步提高，這將增加借貸難度，並可能導致房產價值進一步下跌。

The Australian property market is in a state of change, with expensive city centers facing price drops while smaller cities remain strong despite ongoing inflation.

澳洲房地產市場正處於變動狀態，昂貴的市中心面臨價格下跌，而小型城市儘管面臨持續通膨，但依然強勁。

The Australian housing market is currently undergoing a period of price adjustment, characterized by divergent regional performance and the influence of revised federal tax policies and monetary constraints.

澳洲房屋市場目前正處於價格調整期，其特點在於區域表現分歧，並受到聯邦稅務政策修訂與貨幣限制的影響。

The federal administration, via Housing Minister Clare O'Neil, has characterized the current decline in property values as a cyclical correction following an era of exceptional growth. This trend is evidenced by national auction clearance rates descending below 50 per cent. While the government maintains that the recent overhaul of negative gearing and capital gains tax—designed to facilitate first-home buyer entry—contributes to this shift, Minister O'Neil asserts these reforms are not the primary catalyst. Conversely, market analysts suggest a confluence of factors, including three consecutive Reserve Bank interest rate hikes and geopolitical instability involving Iran, has attenuated buyer demand.

聯邦政府透過房屋部長 Clare O'Neil 將目前的房產價值下跌描述為經歷異常增長時代後的一場週期性修正。這一趨勢可由全國拍賣成交率降至 50% 以下得到證實。雖然政府主張，旨在促進首購族入市的負扣稅 (negative gearing) 與資本利得稅近期改革促成了這一轉變，但 O'Neil 部長斷言這些改革並非主因。相反，市場分析師認為是多種因素共同作用，包括澳洲儲備銀行連續三次調升利率以及涉及伊朗的地緣政治不穩定，削弱了買家需求。

Regional disparities are pronounced. Forecasts from Domain and NAB indicate anticipated price contractions in Sydney and Melbourne, with potential declines reaching 7 per cent and 8 per cent respectively. In contrast, mid-tier capitals such as Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide are projected to maintain positive growth, bolstered by sustained population increases and supply deficits. Data from Cotality reveals a dichotomy in profitability; while 96 per cent of resales in the March quarter yielded nominal profits due to long-term equity accumulation, losses were concentrated in high-density urban areas where sudden surges in unit supply have depressed values.

區域差異十分明顯。Domain 與 NAB 的預測顯示，悉尼與墨爾本的價格預計將收縮，潛在跌幅分別達 7% 與 8%。相比之下，布里斯本、珀斯與阿德萊德等中型城市，在人口持續增長與供應短缺的支撐下，預計將維持正成長。Cotality 的數據揭示了獲利能力的兩極分化；雖然第三季度 96% 的轉售交易因長期權益累積而獲得名義利潤，但損失集中在高密度都市地區，由於單位供應突然激增壓低了價值。

Simultaneously, the macroeconomic environment remains unstable. Although headline inflation decelerated to 4 per cent in May—primarily due to a significant reduction in fuel costs—underlying inflation, as measured by the trimmed mean, ascended to 3.6 per cent. This divergence suggests persistent price pressures in the services and food sectors. Consequently, financial markets maintain a probabilistic expectation of further interest rate increases, which would further constrain borrowing capacity and potentially accelerate the downward pressure on residential asset valuations.

與此同時，宏觀經濟環境仍不穩定。儘管 5 月的整體通膨率放緩至 4%——主因是燃料成本大幅降低——但以 trimmed mean 衡量的核心通膨率則上升至 3.6%。這種分歧顯示服務業與食品業存在持續的價格壓力。因此，金融市場對進一步調升利率持有概率性預期，這將進一步限制借貸能力，並可能加速住宅資產估值的下行壓力。

The Australian property market remains in a state of transition, with high-value urban centers facing declines while smaller capitals remain resilient amid ongoing inflationary volatility.

澳洲房產市場仍處於過渡狀態，高價值城市中心面臨下跌，而較小規模的首府城市在持續的通膨波動中仍保持韌性。