The US and Iran have a peace agreement. Now, oil prices are lower. Ships can move again through the water in the Middle East.

美國與伊朗達成了和平協議。目前油價有所下降，船隻可重新在中東水域航行。

Oil prices fell from $120 to $73. This happened because there is more oil now. The US stopped some rules against Iran. Other countries also sent more oil to the market. China bought less oil in May 2025.

油價從 120 美元下跌至 73 美元。這是因為目前石油供應增加。美國取消了部分針對伊朗的限制。其他國家也向市場供應了更多石油。中國在 2025 年 5 月減少了石油採購。

But there are still problems. Insurance for ships is expensive. There are dangerous mines in the water. Also, the leaders of the US and Iran do not talk to each other. They are still angry.

但問題依然存在。船隻的保險費用昂貴，水域中仍有危險的水雷。此外，美國與伊朗的領導人並未進行溝通，雙方依然關係緊張。

Lower oil prices help the world economy. Prices for other things will not go up as fast. Big oil companies from Saudi Arabia and the UAE are selling more oil to Asia to make more money.

油價下跌有助於全球經濟。其他商品的價格漲幅將會放緩。沙烏地阿拉伯與阿聯酋的大型石油公司正向亞洲銷售更多石油以獲取更多利潤。

Oil prices are low again. But the market is still dangerous because the US and Iran are not friends.

油價再次回落。但由於美國與伊朗關係不睦，市場依然充滿風險。

The global oil market is becoming more stable following a ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran. This has led to a drop in crude oil prices and a gradual return of shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

隨著美國與伊朗達成停火協議，全球石油市場正趨於穩定。這導致原油價格下跌，且霍爾木茲海峽的航運交通逐漸恢復。

Brent crude prices have dropped significantly, falling from nearly $120 to about $73 per barrel. This change was caused by several supply factors, such as the release of 1.3 billion barrels of oil from the Persian Gulf and the removal of US sanctions on Iranian exports. Furthermore, the International Energy Agency released 412 million barrels from strategic reserves, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE used alternative pipelines to keep exports moving. On the demand side, prices fell because Chinese oil imports dropped by 40% in May 2025, and many Asian countries are moving toward electricity and coal.

布倫特原油價格大幅下跌，從近 120 美元跌至每桶約 73 美元。這一變化是由於數個供應因素引起的，例如波斯灣釋放了 13 億桶石油，以及美國取消對伊朗出口的制裁。此外，國際能源總署從戰略儲備中釋放了 4.12 億桶石油，而沙烏地阿拉伯與阿聯酋則利用替代管道維持出口。在需求方面，價格下跌是因為中國在 2025 年 5 月的石油進口量下降了 40%，且許多亞洲國家正轉向使用電力與煤炭。

However, some structural problems still exist. Shipping companies are still paying high insurance costs, and there is still a risk that prices could change suddenly. For example, there are still naval mines in the water, and Iran has stated it wants to keep control over the Strait of Hormuz. To reduce these risks, companies are using new logistics models and finding different trade routes. Additionally, the diplomatic situation remains fragile because Iranian officials recently refused to have direct high-level talks with US representatives in Doha.

然而，一些結構性問題仍然存在。航運公司仍需支付高昂的保險成本，且價格可能突然變動的風險依然存在。例如，海域中仍有水雷，且伊朗表示希望維持對霍爾木茲海峽的控制。為了降低這些風險，企業正採取新的物流模式並尋找不同的貿易路線。此外，外交局勢依然脆弱，因為伊朗官員最近拒絕在多哈與美國代表進行直接的高層會談。

From a financial perspective, lower energy costs have improved economic forecasts. Experts suggest that inflation is less likely to exceed 4.2% in 2026, as energy prices were previously the main cause of inflation. Meanwhile, major producers like Saudi Aramco and ADNOC have increased direct sales to Asian markets to recover the money they lost during the conflict.

從財務角度來看，能源成本降低改善了經濟預測。專家認為，由於能源價格先前是通貨膨脹的主因，因此 2026 年通膨率超過 4.2% 的可能性較低。與此同時，沙烏地阿美與 ADNOC 等主要生產商已增加對亞洲市場的直接銷售，以挽回衝突期間損失的資金。

Although oil prices have mostly returned to their previous levels, the market could still be unstable due to ongoing diplomatic tensions and geopolitical risks.

雖然油價大多已回落至先前水平，但由於外交緊張局勢與地緣政治風險依然存在，市場可能仍不穩定。

The global oil market is experiencing a period of normalization following a ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran, leading to a reduction in crude prices and a gradual restoration of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

隨著美國與伊朗達成停火協議，全球石油市場正進入一個正常化階段，導致原油價格下跌，而經過霍爾木茲海峽的海上交通亦逐漸恢復。

The current market trajectory is characterized by a significant retreat in Brent crude prices, which have descended from peaks near $120 to approximately $73 per barrel. This correction is attributed to a confluence of supply-side factors, including the release of approximately 1.3 billion barrels of oil previously sequestered in the Persian Gulf and the lifting of US sanctions on Iranian exports. Furthermore, the International Energy Agency coordinated the release of 412 million barrels from strategic reserves, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE utilized bypass pipelines to maintain export volumes. Demand-side pressures also contributed to the price decline, as evidenced by a reported 40% reduction in Chinese oil imports during May 2025 and a broader shift toward electrification and coal in Asian economies.

目前的市場走勢以布倫特原油價格大幅下跌為特徵，已從接近 120 美元的高峰降至每桶約 73 美元。此次修正歸因於供應端的共同因素，包括先前儲存在波斯灣的約 13 億桶原油獲釋出，以及美國取消對伊朗出口的制裁。此外，國際能源總署協調釋出了 4.12 億桶戰略儲備，而沙烏地阿拉伯與阿聯酋則利用繞道管道以維持出口量。需求端的壓力亦導致價格下跌，例如報告指出 2025 年 5 月中國的石油進口量減少了 40%，且亞洲經濟體更廣泛地轉向電氣化與煤炭。

Despite this apparent stability, structural vulnerabilities persist. The maritime logistics sector continues to manage elevated insurance costs—ranging from 3% to 8% of vessel value—and a residual risk premium that is not yet fully integrated into spot pricing. The presence of uncleared naval mines and Iran's stated intent to maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz introduce long-term volatility. Institutional responses include the adoption of hybrid logistics models and the diversification of trade corridors to mitigate future disruptions. Additionally, the recent refusal of Iranian officials to engage in direct high-level talks with US envoys in Doha suggests that the diplomatic rapprochement remains fragile.

儘管表面穩定，但結構性脆弱依然存在。海運物流業仍需應對高昂的保險成本——佔船舶價值的 3% 至 8%——以及尚未完全整合至現貨定價中的殘餘風險溢價。未清理的海雷以及伊朗聲稱要維持對霍爾木茲海峽的控制，帶來了長期波動性。機構的應對措施包括採用混合物流模式及多元化貿易走廊，以減輕未來的中斷影響。此外，伊朗官員最近拒絕在多哈與美國特使進行高層直接對話，顯示外交和解依然脆弱。

From a fiscal perspective, the decline in energy costs has influenced macroeconomic forecasts. Prediction markets, specifically Kalshi, indicate a diminished probability that inflation will exceed 4.2% in 2026, as energy prices previously accounted for 60% of the Consumer Price Index increase between April and May. Meanwhile, regional producers such as Saudi Aramco and ADNOC have engaged in atypical spot sales to Asian markets to accelerate the restoration of shipment volumes and recover lost revenues.

從財政角度來看，能源成本的下降影響了宏觀經濟預測。預測市場（特別是 Kalshi）顯示，2026 年通貨膨脹率超過 4.2% 的可能性降低，因為能源價格先前佔了 4 月至 5 月消費者物價指數增幅的 60%。同時，沙烏地阿美與 ADNOC 等區域生產商採取了非典型的現貨銷售方式向亞洲市場供貨，以加速恢復出貨量並回收損失的收入。

While oil prices have largely returned to pre-war levels, the market remains susceptible to volatility due to unresolved diplomatic tensions and the persistence of geopolitical risk premiums.

雖然油價已基本恢復到戰前水平，但由於外交緊張局勢尚未解決，且地緣政治風險溢價依然存在，市場仍易受到波動影響。