Scientists say a big weather event called El Niño will happen in 2026. This will cause bad weather and food problems in Africa.

科學家表示，2026年將會發生一場稱為「聖嬰現象」的大型天氣事件，這將導致非洲出現惡劣天氣與糧食問題。

The ocean is getting warm. This makes the weather change. Southern Africa will be very dry. Eastern and Central Africa will have too much rain and floods. The world is already warm, so these problems are worse.

海洋正在變暖，這使得天氣發生改變。南部非洲將會非常乾旱。東部與中部非洲則會出現過量降雨與洪災。世界已經在變暖，因此這些問題變得更加嚴重。

Many people need help. The UN wants 200 million dollars for 8.8 million people. Some countries have new laws to help. But they do not have enough money. Many people might leave their homes because they have no food.

許多人需要幫助。聯合國希望籌得 2 億美元以援助 880 萬人。部分國家制定了新法律來提供幫助，但他們資金不足。許多人可能會因為缺乏食物而離開家園。

Farmers must change their plants. They should grow sorghum and millet. These plants grow well in bad weather. They are better than corn and wheat. Rich countries must give money to local groups to help.

農民必須改變種植的作物。他們應該種植高粱與小米，這些植物在惡劣天氣下生長良好，比玉米和小麥更合適。富裕國家必須向當地組織提供資金以提供援助。

Africa has a big problem with weather. The world must give money quickly to help people.

非洲在天氣方面面臨重大問題。全球必須迅速提供資金以提供援助。

Weather forecasts indicate the start of a major El Niño cycle. This could become a 'super' event, which would seriously affect climate stability and food security across Africa.

天氣預報指出一個大型聖嬰週期即將開始。這可能會演變成一次「超級」事件，將嚴重影響整個非洲的氣候穩定與糧食安全。

This phenomenon is caused by unusually warm sea temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. It is expected to cause different types of weather problems: Southern Africa will likely face severe droughts, while Eastern and Central Africa may experience heavy rain and flooding. Experts emphasize that although human-caused climate change did not start El Niño, the fact that global temperatures have risen by 1.4 degrees Celsius makes these events more severe. A 'super' El Niño, where temperatures rise by 2 degrees or more, increases the risk of total failure in farming and public health systems.

這種現象是由太平洋中部與東部海水溫度異常升高引起的。預計將導致不同類型的天氣問題：南部非洲可能會面臨嚴重乾旱，而東部與中部非洲則可能遭遇豪雨與洪水。專家強調，雖然人為氣候變化並非聖嬰現象的起因，但全球氣溫上升了 1.4 度，使得這些事件變得更為嚴重。若水溫上升 2 度或更多而演變成「超級」聖嬰現象，將增加農業與公共衛生系統完全崩潰的風險。

International organizations have responded, but there is a gap between scientific warnings and actual policy. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Food Programme have requested over $200 million to help 8.8 million people in 22 high-risk countries, such as Ethiopia and Mozambique. Although some countries have created early warning systems and new laws, these efforts are limited by a lack of money and delays in receiving emergency funds. Furthermore, climate shocks combined with existing problems—such as national debt and regional conflicts—increase the risk of mass migration. The World Bank predicts that climate change could force 86 million more people into African cities by 2050.

國際組織已作出回應，但科學警告與實際政策之間仍存在差距。聯合國糧食及農業組織與世界糧食計劃署已申請超過 2 億美元，以援助 22 個高風險國家（如衣索比亞與莫三比克）的 880 萬人。雖然部分國家建立了預警系統與新法律，但這些努力受限於資金匱乏以及緊急撥款的延遲。此外，氣候衝擊結合現有問題（如國家債務與區域衝突），增加了大規模遷徙的風險。世界銀行預測，到 2050 年，氣候變化可能會迫使多出 8600 萬人遷往非洲城市。

To adapt, experts suggest moving away from single-sector solutions toward a combined plan for water, energy, and health. They recommend that farmers grow a wider variety of climate-resilient crops, such as sorghum and millet, instead of relying only on maize and wheat. However, this success depends on better cooperation between international banks and local institutions to ensure that funding is easy to access and fits local needs.

為了適應，專家建議從單一部門的解決方案轉向水資源、能源與健康的綜合計劃。他們建議農民種植更多樣化的耐候作物，如高粱和小米，而非僅依賴玉米和小麥。然而，這項成功的關鍵在於國際銀行與本地機構之間能否有更好的合作，以確保資金易於獲取且符合本地需求。

Africa is entering a dangerous period of weather instability. The ability to manage a potential super El Niño depends on the fast arrival of international funding and the use of local adaptation strategies.

非洲正進入一個危險的天氣不穩定時期。能否有效應對潛在的超級聖嬰現象，取決於國際資金的到位速度以及本地適應策略的運用。

Meteorological forecasts indicate the emergence of a significant El Niño cycle, potentially escalating into a 'super' event, with profound implications for climate stability and food security across the African continent.

氣象預報指出一個重大的聖嬰週期即將出現，有可能演變成一次「超級」事件，對整個非洲大陸的氣候穩定與糧食安全產生深遠影響。

The phenomenon, characterized by anomalous warming of sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, is projected to induce divergent climatic disruptions. Southern Africa is anticipated to experience intensified aridification, whereas Eastern and Central Africa may encounter excessive precipitation and subsequent flooding. Research suggests that while anthropogenic climate change is not the primary catalyst for El Niño, the elevation of baseline global temperatures by approximately 1.4 degrees Celsius exacerbates the severity of its manifestations. The potential for a 'super' El Niño—defined by temperature deviations of 2 degrees Celsius or more—increases the probability of systemic failures in agriculture and public health.

此現象的特徵是太平洋中部與東部的海面溫度異常升高，預計將導致截然不同的氣候紊亂。南部非洲預計將面臨更嚴重的乾旱化，而東部與中部非洲則可能遭遇過量降水及隨後的洪水。研究表明，雖然人為氣候變遷並非聖嬰現象的主要觸發因素，但全球基準溫度上升約 1.4 攝氏度，加劇了其表現的嚴重程度。一旦出現「超級」聖嬰現象（定義為溫度偏差達 2 攝氏度或以上），農業與公共衛生系統發生系統性崩潰的可能性將會增加。

Institutional responses have been characterized by a dichotomy between scientific foresight and policy implementation. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Food Programme have requested over $200 million to mitigate risks for 8.8 million individuals across 22 high-risk nations, including Ethiopia, Somalia, and Mozambique. Despite the implementation of early warning systems and legislative advancements, such as South Africa's Climate Change Act, the efficacy of these measures is constrained by fiscal deficits and the delayed disbursement of emergency funds. Furthermore, the intersection of climate shocks with existing socioeconomic fragilities—including sovereign debt, inflationary import costs, and regional conflicts—compounds the risk of mass internal displacement. World Bank projections suggest that climate-induced migration could result in 86 million additional displaced persons in African urban centers by 2050.

機構的反應呈現出科學預見與政策執行之間的脫節。聯合國糧食及農業組織與世界糧食計劃署已請求超過 2 億美元，以降低包括衣索比亞、索馬利亞與莫三比克在內的 22 個高風險國家中 880 萬人的風險。儘管已實施預警系統並取得立法進展（例如南非的《氣候變遷法》），但這些措施的成效受限於財政赤字與緊急資金撥款的延遲。此外，氣候衝擊與現有的社會經濟脆弱性（包括主權債務、進口成本通膨及區域衝突）交織，加劇了大規模內部流離失所的風險。世界銀行預測，到 2050 年，氣候誘發的遷徙可能會使非洲城市中心增加 8,600 萬名流離失所者。

Strategic adaptation requires a transition from sector-specific interventions toward an integrated framework encompassing water, energy, and health. Experts advocate for the diversification of agricultural staples, suggesting the utilization of climate-resilient, underutilized crops such as sorghum and millet to replace vulnerable maize and wheat dependencies. The realization of this resilience is contingent upon a rapprochement between international financiers and local institutions, ensuring that climate adaptation grants and concessional financing are accessible and aligned with local operational capacities.

策略性適應需要從單一部門的干預轉向涵蓋水資源、能源與衛生的綜合框架。專家主張將農業主食多元化，建議利用具有氣候韌性且未被充分利用的作物（如高粱與小米）來取代對玉米與小麥的依賴。實現此種韌性取決於國際金融機構與本地機構的協調，以確保氣候適應補助金與優惠融資可被取得且符合本地的操作能力。

Africa faces a critical period of climatic instability, where the capacity to mitigate a potential super El Niño depends on the rapid mobilization of international finance and the scaling of localized adaptation strategies.

非洲正面臨氣候不穩定的關鍵時期，緩解潛在超級聖嬰現象的能力取決於國際金融的快速動員以及本地適應策略的規模化。