Rahm Emanuel is a former mayor of Chicago. He says the US should stop giving free help to Israel.

拉姆·伊曼紐爾是前芝加哥市長。他表示美國應該停止向以色列提供免費援助。

Mr. Emanuel spoke at a university. He says Israel does not listen to the US because the US always gives money. He wants the US to stop this. He wants to punish people who build new homes in the West Bank. He also says Israel should pay for its own weapons.

伊曼紐爾先生在一家大學演講。他表示以色列之所以不聽從美國，是因為美國一直提供資金。他希望美國停止這樣做。他希望懲罰在約旦河西岸興建新住宅的人。他還表示以色列應該自行支付武器費用。

Many people in the Democratic Party now disagree with Israel. A poll shows that 58% of Democrats think the US gives too much help. Some people are very angry about the war in Gaza. This is why some politicians want to change the rules.

許多民主黨人現在不認同以色列。一份民調顯示，58% 的民主黨人認為美國提供了過多援助。有些人對加薩戰爭感到非常憤怒。這就是為什麼一些政治人物想要改變規則。

Mr. Emanuel has a new plan for peace. He does not want two states. He wants 21 Arab countries to help lead Palestine. He thinks this will stop Iran from causing trouble. Some people say this plan is still too helpful to Israel.

伊曼紐爾先生有一個新的和平計劃。他不想要兩個國家的方案。他希望由 21 個阿拉伯國家協助領導巴勒斯坦。他認為這將阻止伊朗製造麻煩。有些人表示這個計劃對以色列仍然過於寬容。

The US and Israel are changing. The US may stop giving help if Israel does not follow the rules.

美國與以色列的關係正在改變。如果以色列不遵守規則，美國可能會停止援助。

Former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel has argued that the United States should stop providing unconditional aid to Israel, suggesting that the alliance between the two countries needs a fundamental change.

前芝加哥市長拉姆·伊曼紐爾主張美國應停止向以色列提供無條件援助，並建議兩國之間的同盟關係需要根本性的改變。

During a speech at Tel Aviv University, Mr. Emanuel claimed that the history of unconditional U.S. support has created an environment where the Israeli government, particularly under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, feels it can ignore American concerns about settlement expansion and regional stability without facing consequences. He emphasized that this lack of accountability is a failure of previous U.S. policies. Consequently, Mr. Emanuel asserts that the alliance must move toward a conditional framework. He specifically proposes imposing sanctions on individuals and banks involved in West Bank settlements and ending defense subsidies, meaning Israel would have to buy weapons under the same financial terms as other partners.

在特拉維夫大學的一次演講中，伊曼紐爾先生聲稱，美國長期無條件支持的歷史創造了一種環境，使得以色列政府（尤其是在總理納坦雅胡領導下）認為自己可以無視美國對定居點擴張和區域穩定的擔憂而無需承擔後果。他強調，這種缺乏問責制的情況是先前美國政策的失敗。因此，伊曼紐爾先生斷言，該同盟必須向有條件的框架轉型。他具體建議對參與約旦河西岸定居點的個人和銀行實施制裁，並取消國防補貼，這意味著以色列購買武器必須與其他合作夥伴適用相同的財務條款。

This change in tone comes as support for Israel declines among Democrats. According to an AP-NORC poll, 58% of Democrats believe U.S. support for Israel is too high, and many describe military actions in Gaza as genocidal. Furthermore, progressive candidates have seen more success in several states, and there are new legislative efforts to limit the sale of certain military equipment. While some Republicans, such as Vice President JD Vance, have also expressed frustration with Israeli diplomacy, the shift within the Democratic Party appears more widespread.

這種語調的轉變正值民主黨對以色列的支持度下降之際。根據 AP-NORC 的民調，58% 的民主黨人認為美國對以色列的支持過高，許多人將加薩的軍事行動描述為種族滅絕。此外，進步派候選人在多個州取得了更多成功，且有新的立法努力旨在限制銷售某些軍事設備。雖然部分共和黨人（如副總統 JD Vance）也對以色列的外交表達了挫折感，但民主黨內部的轉變似乎更為普遍。

Regarding a long-term peace plan, Mr. Emanuel has suggested moving away from the traditional two-state model. Instead, he advocates for a '23-state solution,' where 21 Arab nations would help establish a Palestinian governing authority that recognizes the historical Jewish connection to the land. He frames this as a strategic way to isolate Iran and improve regional security. However, critics like James Zogby argue that this approach is still too biased toward Israel and ignores the complex history of the conflict, suggesting it may be a political move to satisfy both Democratic voters and wealthy donors.

關於長期和平計劃，伊曼紐爾先生建議擺脫傳統的兩國方案。相反，他倡導一種「23國方案」，由 21 個阿拉伯國家協助建立一個承認猶太人與該地歷史聯繫的巴勒斯坦管治權力機構。他將此視為孤立伊朗並改善區域安全的戰略方式。然而，如詹姆斯·佐格比等批評者認為，這種做法對以色列依然過於偏袒，且無視衝突的複雜歷史，認為這可能是一個為了滿足民主黨選民與富裕捐助者的政治舉措。

The current situation shows a growing gap between traditional U.S. foreign policy and the changing views of both major American political parties, signaling a possible move toward conditional diplomacy.

目前的情況顯示，傳統美國外交政策與兩大政黨不斷改變的觀點之間差距日益擴大，預示著可能會向有條件外交轉型。

Former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel has advocated for the cessation of unconditional American assistance to Israel, suggesting a fundamental realignment of the bilateral alliance.

前芝加哥市長拉姆·埃馬紐埃爾主張停止美國對以色列無條件的援助，建議雙邊同盟應進行根本性的調整。

The discourse delivered by Mr. Emanuel at Tel Aviv University posits that the historical precedent of unconditional U.S. support has facilitated a political environment in which the Israeli administration, specifically under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, perceives a lack of political consequence for disregarding American concerns regarding settlement expansion and regional stability. This perceived lack of accountability is characterized as a systemic failure of previous U.S. policy. Consequently, Mr. Emanuel asserts that the alliance has reached a critical juncture necessitating a transition toward a conditional framework. He specifically proposes the implementation of sanctions against individuals and financial institutions involved in the expansion of settlements in the West Bank, as well as the termination of defense subsidies, suggesting that Israel procure armaments under the same fiscal terms as other strategic partners.

埃馬紐埃爾先生在特拉維夫大學的演講中認為，美國一直以來無條件支持的歷史先例，造成了一種政治環境，使得以色列政府（特別是在內塔尼亞胡總理領導下）認為即使無視美國對擴張定居點與區域穩定的關注，也不會產生政治後果。這種缺乏問責制的狀況被視為先前美國政策的系統性失敗。因此，埃馬紐埃爾先生斷言，該同盟已達到一個關鍵轉折點，必須轉向一個有條件的框架。他特別建議對參與西岸定居點擴張的個人與金融機構實施制裁，並終止國防補貼，建議以色列應與其他戰略夥伴採取相同的財政條款來採購軍備。

This shift in rhetoric coincides with a measurable decline in support for Israel within the Democratic constituency. Data from an AP-NORC poll indicates that 58% of Democrats now perceive U.S. support for Israel as excessive, with a significant proportion characterizing military operations in Gaza as genocidal. Such sentiment is further evidenced by the success of progressive candidates in several U.S. states and legislative efforts to restrict the sale of specific military equipment. While some Republican figures, such as Vice President JD Vance, have expressed frustration with Israeli diplomatic conduct, the Democratic shift appears more systemic.

這種言論的轉變，與民主黨選民對以色列支持度的明顯下降同步。AP-NORC 的民調數據顯示，58% 的民主黨人現在認為美國對以色列的支持過多，且有相當大比例的人將加薩的軍事行動描述為種族滅絕。數個美國州份進步派候選人的獲勝，以及限制銷售特定軍事設備的立法努力，進一步證明了這種情緒。雖然部分共和黨人物（如副總統 JD Vance）也對以色列的外交行為表示不滿，但民主黨的轉變似乎更具系統性。

Regarding a sustainable peace architecture, Mr. Emanuel has proposed a departure from the traditional two-state model, advocating instead for a '23-state solution.' This framework would require 21 Arab nations to assume responsibility for the establishment of a Palestinian governing authority that acknowledges the historical Jewish connection to the land. This proposal is framed as a strategic mechanism to isolate Iran and ensure regional security. However, critics, including James Zogby, suggest that this approach remains rooted in pro-Israel perspectives and avoids the deeper contextual complexities of the conflict, potentially serving as a political maneuver to balance the interests of a shifting Democratic electorate with those of established institutional donors.

關於可持續的和平架構，埃馬紐埃爾先生提出要捨棄傳統的「兩國方案」，轉而倡導「23國方案」。該框架將要求 21 個阿拉伯國家承擔責任，建立一個承認猶太人與該土地有歷史聯繫的巴勒斯坦管理當局。此建議被定位為一個隔離伊朗並確保區域安全的戰略機制。然而，包括詹姆斯·佐格比在內的批評者認為，這種做法依然根植於親以色列的視角，避開了衝突中更深層的背景複雜性，可能僅是為了平衡不斷變化的民主黨選民與既有體制捐款人之間利益的政治手段。

The current situation is characterized by a growing divergence between traditional U.S. foreign policy and the evolving political sentiments within both major American parties, signaling a potential transition toward conditional diplomacy.

目前的狀況在於傳統美國外交政策與美國兩大政黨內部演變中的政治情緒之間，出現了日益嚴重的分歧，預示著外交政策可能會向有條件外交轉型。