Experts say there will be fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean in 2026.

專家表示 2026 年大西洋的颶風數量將會減少。

A weather event called El Niño is starting. El Niño makes strong winds in the sky. These winds stop storms from growing. Some experts say this El Niño is very strong.

一場稱為聖嬰現象的天氣事件正在開始。聖嬰現象會在高空產生強風，這些強風會阻止風暴的成長。部分專家表示這次的聖嬰現象非常強烈。

Colorado State University says there will be nine storms. AccuWeather says there will be eight to fourteen storms. These numbers are lower than before.

科羅拉多州立大學表示將會有九場風暴。AccuWeather 則預測會有八到十四場風暴。這些數字比以往更低。

Some places are still in danger. The southeast USA and the Caribbean may still get storms. The ocean temperature can change these plans.

但部分地區仍處於危險之中。美國東南部與加勒比海地區可能仍會遭遇風暴。海洋溫度的變化可能會影響這些預測。

The 2026 season may be quiet. However, people on the coast must still be ready.

2026 年的風季可能會較為平靜，然而沿海居民仍必須做好準備。

Weather agencies and university researchers have updated their forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, expecting fewer storms to develop than usual.

氣象機構與大學研究人員更新了對 2026 年大西洋颶風季的預測，預計發展的風暴數量將少於往年。

The decrease in predicted storms is mainly caused by the early start of El Niño, a warming pattern in the Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon creates strong winds in the upper atmosphere over the Atlantic, which disrupts the structure of tropical storms and prevents them from becoming stronger. The Climate Prediction Center states there is a 63% chance that this event will be one of the most significant since 1950, while AccuWeather suggests a 70% chance of a 'Super El Niño' lasting until early 2027.

預測風暴減少主要是由於厄爾尼諾（太平洋的一種暖化模式）提前開始。這種現象會在大西洋上層大氣中產生強風，擾亂熱帶風暴的結構，使其無法變得更強。氣候預測中心指出，此次事件有 63% 的機率成為 1950 年以來最顯著的事件之一，而 AccuWeather 則認為有 70% 的機率出現持續到 2027 年初的「超級厄爾尼諾」。

Different organizations have provided slightly different numbers, but they all agree that activity will be lower. For example, Colorado State University reduced its forecast from 13 named storms to nine, including four hurricanes. Similarly, AccuWeather adjusted its range to between eight and 14 named storms. Despite these lower numbers, AccuWeather still expects three to five storms to hit the U.S., emphasizing that the southeastern coast, the Gulf Coast, and the Caribbean remain high-risk areas.

不同機構提供的數據略有差異，但均認同活動將會降低。例如，科羅拉多州立大學將預測從 13 個命名風暴下調至 9 個，其中包括 4 個颶風。同樣地，AccuWeather 將其範圍調整為 8 至 14 個命名風暴。儘管數字較低，AccuWeather 仍預計將有 3 至 5 個風暴襲擊美國，並強調東南海岸、墨西哥灣沿岸及加勒比海仍為高風險地區。

However, some uncertainty remains due to historical data and changing variables. While the 2025 season had 13 named storms and no U.S. landfalls, the long-term average is 14 storms per year. Current data show a 32% chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. coast and a 35% chance for the Caribbean. Researchers emphasized that changes in ocean temperatures are still a key factor that could lead to further changes in these predictions.

然而，由於歷史數據與變數的影響，仍存在一些不確定性。雖然 2025 年有 13 個命名風暴且未登陸美國，但長期平均每年為 14 個風暴。目前數據顯示，重大颶風襲擊美國海岸的機率為 32%，加勒比海則為 35%。研究人員強調，海洋溫度的變化仍是關鍵因素，可能會導致這些預測進一步變動。

Current data suggest that the 2026 season will be quieter, but officials warn that people living on the coast must stay prepared regardless of the lower statistics.

目前數據顯示 2026 年將會較為平靜，但官方警告，無論統計數據是否較低，居住在沿海地區的人們必須做好準備。

Meteorological agencies and academic researchers have revised their forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, anticipating a below-average frequency of storm development.

氣象機構與學術研究人員已修訂對 2026 年大西洋颶風季的預測，預計風暴形成的頻率將低於平均水準。

The downward revision of storm projections is primarily attributed to the premature onset of El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This Pacific climate phenomenon increases vertical wind shear across the Atlantic basin, thereby disrupting the structural organization of tropical systems and suppressing their intensification. The Climate Prediction Center indicates a 63% probability that this event will rank among the most significant since 1950, while AccuWeather posits a 70% likelihood of the emergence of a 'Super El Niño' persisting into early 2027.

風暴預測的下調主要歸因於聖嬰現象（聖嬰-南方振盪 ENSO 的暖相）提前發生。這種太平洋氣候現象增加了大西洋盆地的垂直風切，從而破壞熱帶系統的結構組織並抑制其增強。氣候預測中心指出，此次事件有 63% 的可能性將位列 1950 年以來最顯著的事件之列，而 AccuWeather 則認為有 70% 的可能性會出現一個持續至 2027 年初的「超級聖嬰現象」。

Institutional estimates vary in precision but align in their downward trajectory. Colorado State University's Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling and Software team has reduced its forecast from 13 named storms to nine, including four hurricanes and one major hurricane (Category 3 or higher). Similarly, AccuWeather has adjusted its range to eight to 14 named storms, down from an initial estimate of 11 to 16. Despite these reductions, AccuWeather maintains a projection of three to five direct U.S. impacts, specifically identifying the southeastern coastline, the northern and eastern Gulf Coast, and the Caribbean as high-risk zones.

各機構的估算精準度雖有差異，但在下降趨勢上是一致的。科羅拉多州立大學的熱帶氣旋、雷達、大氣建模與軟體團隊將預測從 13 個命名風暴下修至 9 個，其中包括 4 個颶風和 1 個強颶風（3 級或以上）。同樣地，AccuWeather 將預測範圍從最初的 11 至 16 個命名風暴調整為 8 至 14 個。儘管如此，AccuWeather 仍預計將有 3 至 5 次直接影響美國，特別將東南海岸、墨西哥灣北部與東岸，以及加勒比海列為高風險區域。

Historical context and current variables introduce a degree of uncertainty. While the 2025 season saw 13 named storms and no U.S. landfalls—despite the catastrophic impact of Category 5 Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica—the long-term seasonal average remains 14 named storms. Current projections suggest a 32% probability of a major hurricane striking the U.S. coast and a 35% probability for the Caribbean. Researchers emphasize that fluctuations in Atlantic sea surface temperatures remain a critical variable that could necessitate further adjustments to these predictive models.

歷史背景與當前變數引入了一定程度的不確定性。雖然 2025 年出現了 13 個命名風暴且無登陸美國（儘管 5 級颶風 Melissa 對牙買加造成毀滅性影響），但長期季節平均值仍為 14 個命名風暴。目前的預測顯示，強颶風擊中美國海岸的概率為 32%，加勒比海則為 35%。研究人員強調，大西洋海面溫度的波動仍是關鍵變數，可能導致這些預測模型需要進一步調整。

Current data suggest a quieter 2026 season, though officials maintain that coastal populations must remain prepared regardless of the statistical decrease in projected activity.

目前數據顯示 2026 年的風季將較為平靜，但官員強調，無論統計上預測的活動減少多少，沿海居民必須保持準備狀態。