Many people in Alberta are unhappy with their leader, Danielle Smith. They are talking about if Alberta should stay in Canada.

許多艾伯塔省的人對他們的領導人 Danielle Smith 不滿。他們正在討論艾伯塔省是否應該留在加拿大。

A survey shows that 56 percent of people do not like Premier Smith. Many people think she wants a vote on leaving Canada only to keep her job.

一項調查顯示，56% 的人不喜歡 Smith 省長。許多人認為她之所以想針對離開加拿大進行投票，僅僅是為了保住自己的職位。

Prime Minister Mark Carney says this vote is a bad idea. He says it hurts business and pipelines. Premier Smith says the vote is important for democracy.

總理 Mark Carney 表示這次投票是一個糟糕的主意。他說這會損害商業和管道產業。Smith 省長則表示這次投票對民主至關重要。

Pierre Poilievre wants all provinces to work together. He says Alberta should not leave Canada. Instead, provinces should ask the government for better rules on immigration and oil.

Pierre Poilievre 希望所有省份共同合作。他表示艾伯塔省不應該離開加拿大。相反，各省應該要求政府制定更好的移民和石油相關規範。

Alberta is still divided. Some people want to leave Canada, but fewer people want this now. There is a vote on October 19.

艾伯塔省仍然處於分歧。有些人想離開加拿大，但目前這樣想的人較少。10 月 19 日將進行投票。

Recent polls and political events show that public approval for Premier Danielle Smith is unstable. There is also a complex debate about whether Alberta should remain part of the Canadian federation.

最近的民調與政治事件顯示，民眾對省長 Danielle Smith 的支持率並不穩定。此外，關於亞伯達省是否應繼續留在加拿大聯邦中，也存在一場複雜的爭論。

Data from Ipsos shows that many people are unhappy with Premier Danielle Smith's leadership, with 56 per cent expressing dissatisfaction. Similarly, 58 per cent of the population disapprove of how she is handling the debate over separation. Furthermore, 52 per cent of respondents believe the Premier wants a referendum to protect her own political position rather than to give power to the people.

Ipsos 的數據顯示，許多人對省長 Danielle Smith 的領導感到不滿，其中 56% 的人表示不滿意。同樣地，58% 的人口不贊同她處理分離爭論的方式。此外，52% 的受訪者認為省長想要舉行全民公投是為了保護她自己的政治地位，而非將權力交給人民。

Tensions are increasing because of the federal government's reaction. Prime Minister Mark Carney described the proposed referendum as a 'dangerous bluff,' asserting that the UCP government does not have the authority to do this. He emphasized that such a move could discourage investment in important projects, like the Pacific coast pipeline. On the other hand, Premier Smith argues that removing the question from the ballot would unfairly stop democratic expression. Meanwhile, a court recently rejected a petition for separation because the government did not explain how it would affect Indigenous treaty rights.

由於聯邦政府的反應，緊張局勢正在升溫。總理 Mark Carney 將擬議的公投形容為一次「危險的賭博」，並聲稱 UCP 政府沒有權限這樣做。他強調，此類舉措可能會挫傷對重要項目（如太平洋海岸管道）的投資信心。另一方面，省長 Smith 則認為將該問題從選票中移除，將不公平地阻止民主表達。與此同時，法院最近駁回了一項分離申請，因為政府未能解釋這將如何影響原住民的條約權利。

At the same time, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has started a campaign for national unity. He suggests that the desire for separation is not a rejection of Canadians, but rather a reaction to failed federal policies. Consequently, he advocates for Alberta to work together with other provinces, such as Quebec and Ontario, to demand changes to laws that block development. He believes that cooperating with other provinces is a better alternative to seeking total independence.

與此同時，保守黨黨魁 Pierre Poilievre 展開了一場國家統一運動。他認為對分離的渴望並非對加拿大人的否定，而是對失敗聯邦政策的一種反應。因此，他主張亞伯達省應與魁北克和安大略等其他省份合作，要求修改阻礙發展的法律。他相信與其他省份合作是比追求完全獨立更好的替代方案。

Alberta remains politically divided. The UCP holds a small lead over the NDP, and while support for formal separation is still present, it has declined ahead of the October 19 referendum.

亞伯達省在政治上依然分裂。UCP 領先 NDP 少量，雖然正式分離的支持度依然存在，但在 10 月 19 日公投前已有所下降。

Recent polling data and political developments indicate significant volatility in Alberta's public approval of Premier Danielle Smith and a complex debate regarding the province's continued inclusion in the Canadian federation.

最近的民調數據與政治發展顯示，亞伯塔省民眾對省長 Danielle Smith 的支持率波動顯著，且關於該省是否繼續留在加拿大聯邦內的爭論十分複雜。

Quantitative data from Ipsos reveals a prevailing disapproval of Premier Danielle Smith's administration, with 56 per cent of respondents expressing dissatisfaction with her overall performance. This trend is mirrored in her handling of the separatism discourse, where 58 per cent of the population indicate disapproval. A notable cognitive dissonance exists among the electorate; a majority of both pro-separation and anti-separation cohorts perceive the Premier's personal objectives as being antithetical to their own. Furthermore, 52 per cent of respondents attribute the initiation of a referendum to the Premier's desire for political self-preservation rather than democratic empowerment.

Ipsos 的定量數據顯示，多數人並不認同省長 Danielle Smith 的政府，有 56% 的受訪者對其整體表現表示不滿。這一趨勢也反映在其處理分離主義論述上，有 58% 的人口表示不認同。選民中存在顯著的認知失調；無論是支持分離還是反對分離的群體，大多數人都認為省長的個人目標與其自身目標背道而馳。此外，52% 的受訪者認為發起全民公投是出於省長對政治自我保全的渴望，而非為了賦予民主權力。

Institutional tensions are exacerbated by the federal government's response. Prime Minister Mark Carney has characterized the proposed referendum as a 'dangerous bluff,' asserting that the UCP lacked a mandate for such a measure and that it potentially undermines investment in critical infrastructure, such as the proposed Pacific coast pipeline. Conversely, Premier Smith maintains that omitting the question from the ballot would constitute an unjustifiable suppression of democratic expression. This legal volatility is further evidenced by a judicial ruling that invalidated a pro-separatist petition on the grounds that the government failed to address the implications for Indigenous treaty rights.

聯邦政府的反應加劇了體制緊張局勢。總理 Mark Carney 將擬議的公投形容為「危險的虛張聲勢」，聲稱 UCP 缺乏執行此類措施的授權，且這可能會削弱對關鍵基礎設施（如擬議的太平洋沿岸管道）的投資。相反，省長 Smith 主張，將該問題從選票中剔除將構成對民主表達的不公正壓制。這種法律上的波動性進一步體現在一項司法裁決中，該裁決以政府未能處理對原住民條約權利的影響為由，宣布一份支持分離主義的請願書失效。

Simultaneously, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has initiated a campaign for national unity. Poilievre posits that the impetus for separatism is not a rejection of the Canadian citizenry but a reaction to specific federal policy failures. He advocates for a strategic rapprochement between Alberta and other provinces—specifically Quebec, Ontario, and the Atlantic provinces—to collectively demand the repeal of anti-development legislation and the restoration of provincial autonomy over immigration and resource management. This approach seeks to replace the pursuit of sovereignty with a model of cooperative federalism.

同時，保守黨黨魁 Pierre Poilievre 發起了一場國家統一運動。Poilievre 認為，分離主義的動力並非是對加拿大公民的拒絕，而是對特定聯邦政策失敗的反應。他倡導亞伯塔省與其他省份——特別是魁北克、安大略及大西洋省份——採取戰略性接觸，共同要求廢除反開發立法，並恢復省份在移民與資源管理方面的自主權。這種做法旨在以「合作聯邦主義」模式取代對主權的追求。

Alberta remains politically divided, with a narrow lead for the UCP over the NDP and a declining, though persistent, level of support for formal separation ahead of the October 19 referendum.

亞伯塔省在政治上依然分歧，UCP 對 NDP 僅有微弱領先，在 10 月 19 日公投前，正式分離的支持率雖然下降，但仍持續存在。