Scientists say a weather pattern called El Niño is starting. It will be very strong by late 2026.

科學家表示，一種稱為聖嬰現象的天氣模式正在開始，到 2026 年底將會非常強烈。

The ocean water in the Pacific is getting very warm. This happens because the wind changes. This warm water changes the weather in many countries.

太平洋的海水正變得非常溫暖。這是因為風向改變所導致的。這些暖水會改變許多國家的天氣。

Some places will have more rain and floods. Other places will be very hot and dry. This is bad for many farms and the economy.

有些地方會出現更多降雨和洪水。其他地方則會非常炎熱乾旱。這對許多農場和經濟都非常不利。

The ocean is also too hot for fish. Many fish and crabs are dying. This is a big problem for people who sell fish.

海水對於魚類來說也太熱了。許多魚類和螃蟹正在死亡。對於賣魚的人來說，這是一個巨大的問題。

The world is moving into a strong El Niño. Countries must prepare for bad weather until 2027.

世界正進入一個強烈的聖嬰現象。各國必須為 2027 年前的惡劣天氣做好準備。

Weather agencies have confirmed that an El Niño climate pattern has started in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Current forecasts suggest there is a high probability that this event will become one of the most intense in history by late 2026.

氣象機構已確認赤道太平洋地區開始出現聖嬰現象。目前的預測顯示，這次事件極有可能在 2026 年底前成為歷史上最強烈的事件之一。

This phenomenon occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become unusually warm. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is a 63% chance that this event will be among the most significant since 1950, potentially matching the severe episode of 1997. This happens because trade winds weaken, allowing warm water to move eastward, which consequently changes global weather and ocean circulation patterns.

這種現象發生於太平洋中部和東部的海面溫度變得異常溫暖時。根據美國國家海洋暨大氣管理局 (NOAA) 的數據，這次事件有 63% 的機會成為 1950 年以來最顯著的事件之一，甚至可能與 1997 年的嚴重程度相當。這是因為信風減弱，使得暖水向東移動，進而改變了全球的天氣和海洋環流模式。

Experts emphasize that the effects will vary by region. In the United States, this pattern usually brings more rain to the South and warmer, drier weather to the Pacific Northwest. While some farmers, especially those growing soybeans, might see benefits, economists warn that rising temperatures could slow down national economic growth. Furthermore, the event is expected to cause extreme weather globally, such as floods in western South America and intense heat waves in India and Australia, although the Middle East might see less severe droughts.

專家強調，不同地區的影響將有所差異。在美國，這種模式通常會為南方帶來更多降雨，而太平洋西北地區則會出現更溫暖、更乾燥的天氣。雖然部分農民，尤其是種植大豆的農民，可能會獲益，但經濟學家警告，氣溫上升可能會減緩國家經濟增長。此外，預計這次事件將在全球引起極端天氣，例如南美洲西部發生洪水，印度和澳洲出現強烈熱浪，儘管中東地區的乾旱可能較不嚴重。

Another major concern is the increase in marine heat waves, which are periods of extreme ocean warming. These events can happen at the surface or the seafloor and often last a long time. Such temperature spikes threaten marine life and commercial fishing; for example, previous heat waves caused a massive drop in Pacific cod and snow crab populations. Forecasts indicate that damaging heat could affect nearly 50% of the global ocean by the end of 2026, with high risks for the coasts of California, Mexico, and the Indian and Southern Oceans.

另一個主要擔憂是海洋熱浪的增加，即海水溫度極端升高的時期。這些事件可能發生在海面或海床，且通常持續時間較長。這種溫度飆升威脅著海洋生物和商業捕魚；例如，之前的熱浪導致太平洋鱈魚和雪蟹數量大幅下降。預測顯示，到 2026 年底，具破壞性的熱浪可能會影響全球近 50% 的海洋，加州、墨西哥海岸以及印度洋和南極海的風險較高。

The global climate is moving into a powerful El Niño phase. Therefore, governments and organizations must prepare for widespread weather and ecological disruptions through 2027.

全球氣候正進入一個強大的聖嬰現象階段。因此，各國政府和組織必須為 2027 年前大規模的天氣與生態混亂做好準備。

Meteorological agencies have confirmed the onset of an El Niño climate pattern in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with projections indicating a high probability of the event reaching historic intensity by late 2026.

氣象機構已確認赤道太平洋地區開始出現厄爾尼諾氣候模式，預測顯示該事件在 2026 年底前達到歷史強度機率很高。

The current phenomenon, a component of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is characterized by the anomalous warming of sea surface and subsurface waters in the central and eastern Pacific. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has quantified a 63% probability that this event will rank among the most significant since 1950, potentially rivaling the 1997 episode. This atmospheric-oceanic coupling occurs as trade winds diminish, permitting warm water to migrate eastward, thereby altering global thermohaline and atmospheric circulation patterns.

目前的現象是厄爾尼諾-南方震盪（ENSO）的一部分，其特徵為太平洋中部與東部的海面及底層海水溫度異常升高。美國國家海洋暨大氣管理局（NOAA）量化評估認為，此次事件有 63% 的機率被列為 1950 年以來最顯著的事件之一，可能與 1997 年的規模相當。這種大氣-海洋耦合發生在信風減弱時，允許暖水向東遷移，從而改變全球熱鹽環流與大氣環流模式。

Stakeholder assessments indicate divergent regional implications. In the United States, the pattern is associated with increased precipitation in the South and warmer, drier conditions in the Pacific Northwest. While certain agricultural sectors, specifically soybean production, may experience favorable conditions, economists suggest that overall temperature elevations could impede national economic growth. Internationally, the event is expected to exacerbate extreme weather, including floods in western South America and intensified heat waves in India and Australia. Conversely, the Middle East may experience a reduction in drought severity.

利益相關者的評估顯示，各區域的影響不一。在美國，該模式與南部降雨增加以及太平洋西北地區更溫暖、更乾燥的條件相關。雖然某些農業部門（特別是大豆生產）可能會迎來有利條件，但經濟學家指出，整體溫度的升高可能會阻礙國家經濟增長。在國際方面，該事件預計將加劇極端天氣，包括南美洲西部的洪水以及印度和澳大利亞更劇烈的熱浪。相反地，中東地區的乾旱嚴重程度可能會降低。

Of particular concern is the proliferation of marine heat waves (MHWs), which are periods of extreme oceanic warming. These events can occur at the surface or the seafloor, the latter often exhibiting greater persistence and intensity. Such thermal anomalies jeopardize marine biodiversity and commercial fisheries; for instance, previous MHWs resulted in a 70% decline in Pacific cod in the Gulf of Alaska and an 84% reduction in Bering Sea snow crab landings. Current forecasts suggest that damaging thermal stress could affect nearly 50% of the global ocean by the end of 2026, with high vulnerability noted along the coasts of California and Mexico, as well as within the Indian and Southern Oceans.

特別令人關注的是海洋熱浪（MHWs）的激增，即海洋極端升溫的時期。這些事件可能發生在海面或海底，後者通常具有更強的持續性和強度。此類熱異常危及海洋生物多樣性與商業漁業；例如，先前的海洋熱浪導致阿拉斯加灣的太平洋鱈魚減少 70%，以及白令海雪蟹捕獲量減少 84%。目前預測顯示，到 2026 年底，破壞性的熱壓力可能會影響全球近 50% 的海洋，其中加利福尼亞州與墨西哥沿岸，以及印度洋與南大洋的脆弱性較高。

The global climate system is currently transitioning into a strong El Niño phase, necessitating institutional preparedness for widespread meteorological and ecological disruptions through 2027.

全球氣候系統目前正轉向強厄爾尼諾階段，各機構需為 2027 年前 widespread 的氣象與生態擾動做好準備。